Gale Warning 761, NWS Anchorage, AK

740 
FZAK51 PAFC 261204
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-270300-
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 980 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE NEAR
CAPE YAKATAGA THIS AFTERNOON. A 990 MB LOW 90 NM NORTH OF SAND POINT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 90 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY THU NIGHT. A
971 MB LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-270300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SOUTH AND WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...W WIND 45 KT
DIMINISHING TO 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...E WINDS 25 KT
BECOMING W 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-270300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-270300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-270300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISHING TO
15 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER THIS
MORNING. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-270300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 55 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...
W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING 30 KT THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING SW 15 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-270300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE
MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-270300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-270300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...W WIND
15 KT...SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FT BUILDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-270300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
138 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A POWERFUL 965 MB LOW RESIDES OVER THE BARREN ISLANDS REGION BETWEEN
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA AND HAS REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG WEATHER FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR ANCHORAGE THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ALONG PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
INCLUDING COOPER LANDING...GLEN ALPS IN ANCHORAGE...AND THROUGH
THOMPSON PASS NORTHEAST OF VALDEZ.

A LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE EXISTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THIS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WEAKER LOW OVER THE
Y-K DELTA REGION THAT IS PUSHING NORTH. COLD AIR ALOFT IS CURRENTLY
POURING SOUTH CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AKPEN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO A POSITION SOUTH OF KODIAK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN TAKING
LOW PRESSURE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE WEAKENING AND THEN
MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN CORDOVA AND YAKUTAT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY RAIN/SNOW FORECAST
FROM THE MAT-SU VALLEY SOUTH TO ANCHORAGE FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTAL...

STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND REGION AND WEAKEN THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH RISING FREEZING LEVELS OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
ZONE. THOMPSON PASS SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AS A RESULT OF
THESE RISING FREEZING LEVELS...AND THE MELTING OF THE SNOWFALL AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISE OF RIVERS AND
SMALL STREAMS. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER BIG CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE STRONG WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW. HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KODIAK...AND
WITH SUCH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS INDICATED
BY SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND MODEL FORECASTS...DAMAGING WEST WINDS
OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR ANCHORAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVERNIGHT BUT WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL MORE RAPIDLY. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN END BY LATE MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES PAST THE AREA. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT A
TRACE TO PERHAPS ONE INCH OF WET SLUSHY SNOW...STICKING MAINLY ON
GRASS AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES...WILL FALL NEAR SEA LEVEL WITH
PERHAPS ONE TO THREE INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SEE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS ON SNOW POTENTIAL FOR ANCHORAGE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TAKE PLACE
BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE EXISTS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
BRISTOL BAY ZONE...BUT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THE LOWS INTERACTING
WITH ONE ANOTHER MOVE FURTHER APART THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD AIR
SPILLING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST IS HELPING TO CHANGE
THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS KING SALMON.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BY TONIGHT MOST
AREAS BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRUSHES THE REGION FROM WEST THROUGH
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
FROM THE WESTERN CAPES EAST THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

A RELATIVELY WEAKER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GALE FORCE
WINDS...AS WELL AS RAIN OUT AHEAD OF ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE. IT WILL MOVE OVER THE
PRIBILOFS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...171
MARINE...GALES...125 129 138 140 141 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175
                 176 179
         STORMS...120 130 132
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29 OCT 11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1015 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

AKZ101-111-260200-

...FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN ANCHORAGE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. COLD AIR ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL WRAP AROUND AND FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL FALL OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW TOWARD MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING SO ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE MORNING
WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IN TOWN EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 1
INCH. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE ACCUMULATION AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING EARLIER IN THE MORNING...SO
ANTICIPATING 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AB OCT 11