Small Craft Advisory 718, NWS Anchorage, AK

068 
FZAK51 PAFC 071124
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-080300-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 1001 MB LOW NEAR CAPE CLEARE WILL MOVE TO KENAI THIS
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. A 972 MB LOW WILL BE
350 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT LATE SAT NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-080300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-080300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY MORNING FOG.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-080300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NORTH 10 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND 
VARIABLE 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-080300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.TODAY...W WIND TO 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
1 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-080300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 3 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-080300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-080300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-080300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-080300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FT.
PATCHY MORNING FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

113 
FZAK51 PAFC 072311
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-081500-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1006 MB LOW NEAR HOMER WILL MOVE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE 180 NM SOUTH
MIDDLETON ISLAND FRI NIGHT. A 968 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF UNALASKA 
SAT AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN TO 980 MB 600 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND
SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-081500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-081500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING 
N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-081500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-081500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT SEAS 1 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-081500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-081500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-081500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-081500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-081500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING 
NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT THU OCT 6 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN A LOW FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NAM WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL WITH
ITS BETTER HANDLING OF SMALL DETAILS AND ITS "COMPROMISE" POSITION
ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. PREFERENCE FOR THE ECMWF WITH ITS BETTER CONTINUITY...AND
THE HPC FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING WITH
RIDGING TO THE EAST OVER NORTHWEST CANADA AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS CURRENTLY
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THERE ARE TWO SURFACE LOWS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER LOW...ONE CENTERED NEAR TOGIAK AND THE OTHER NEAR
THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF KODIAK ISLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND BE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF SEWARD BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY.
STILL PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE
GULF COAST...MAINLY EAST OF SEWARD. SHOWERS CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE FLOW BECOMES WEAK.

PRECIPITATION AND WINDS FROM A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CYCLONE SOUTH OF
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND POSSIBLY THE ALASKA
PENINSULA SATURDAY. THE LOW ITSELF WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE THE
ALEUTIANS AND IN FACT WILL TRACK ALMOST DUE EAST ALONG 50 DEGREES
NORTH LATITUDE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND WILL BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE EARLY
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL OPEN UP THROUGH THE
BERING SEA AND BRING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 125.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG OCT 11