Gale Warning 670, NWS Anchorage, AK

594 
FZAK62 PAFC 071140
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-080300-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 MB LOW AT 44N 170E WILL MOVE TO 48N 175W LATE TONIGHT AND
DEEPEN TO 966 MB THEN MOVE TO 50N 160W LATE SAT NIGHT AT 972 MB.

$$

PKZ411-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-080300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

424 
FZAK62 PAFC 072333
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-081500-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 968 MB LOW NEAR 46N 177E WILL MOVE TO NEAR 48N 175W AND DEEPEN 
TO 966 MB FRI NIGHT THEN TO NEAR 49N 160W AT 972 MB SAT NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA SUN.
$$

PKZ411-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT THU OCT 6 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN A LOW FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NAM WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL WITH
ITS BETTER HANDLING OF SMALL DETAILS AND ITS "COMPROMISE" POSITION
ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. PREFERENCE FOR THE ECMWF WITH ITS BETTER CONTINUITY...AND
THE HPC FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING WITH
RIDGING TO THE EAST OVER NORTHWEST CANADA AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS CURRENTLY
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THERE ARE TWO SURFACE LOWS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER LOW...ONE CENTERED NEAR TOGIAK AND THE OTHER NEAR
THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF KODIAK ISLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND BE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF SEWARD BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY.
STILL PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE
GULF COAST...MAINLY EAST OF SEWARD. SHOWERS CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INLAND. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE FLOW BECOMES WEAK.

PRECIPITATION AND WINDS FROM A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CYCLONE SOUTH OF
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND POSSIBLY THE ALASKA
PENINSULA SATURDAY. THE LOW ITSELF WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE THE
ALEUTIANS AND IN FACT WILL TRACK ALMOST DUE EAST ALONG 50 DEGREES
NORTH LATITUDE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND WILL BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE EARLY
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL OPEN UP THROUGH THE
BERING SEA AND BRING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 125.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG OCT 11