Small Craft Advisory 695, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA AND
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS TO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, THE
COOK INLET AND SUSITNA VALLEY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO THE REST
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OVER BRISTOL BAY AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE NAM IS
PREFERRED IN THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 36
HOURS BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS IN THE LATER PERIODS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT TO NEAR
MIDDLETON ISLAND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY
EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND AGAIN IN THURSDAY. THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY. THIS WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR SOME OF THE
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. A NEW WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GULF FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING RAIN KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
TO THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA FRIDAY.

,SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE REMAINS OF THE BERING SEA WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST THURSDAY
MORNING THEN DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES INLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING THURSDAY WILL CROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL SECTION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME SHOWERS FRIDAY.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A DEVELOPING LOW JUST EAST OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THEN MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN
AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND RAIN WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...DUE TO THE SPEED THAT THE SURFACE SYSTEMS WILL
BE MOVING THE BERING SEA THIS WEEKEND, THE LONGER TERM MODEL HAVE
VERY DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL IS BELOW
AVERAGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM SEP 11