Storm Warning 131, NWS Anchorage, AK

745 
FZAK62 PAFC 291055
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 29 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-300300-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 29 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 988 MB LOW NEAR 56N 176W WILL MOVE TO 55N 158W FRI MORNING AT AT
983 MB THEN WEAKEN TO 990 MB NEAR 54N 152W FRI NIGHT. A 991 MB LOW
NEAR 48N 159E FRI MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN TO 977 MB AS IT MOVES TO
54N 166E FRI NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ411-300300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 29 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-300300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 29 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-300300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 29 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-300300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 29 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

406 
FZAK62 PAFC 300002
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-301500-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 988 MB LOW NEAR 57N 171W WILL MOVE TO 55N 158W FRI MORNING AT 986
MB THEN WEAKEN TO 991 MB NEAR 53N 151W SAT MORNING. A 980 MB LOW
NEAR 53N 164E SAT MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN TO 970 MB AS IT MOVES TO
55N 165E SAT NIGHT.
$$

PKZ411-301500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-301500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-301500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-301500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT WED SEP 28 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS DEVELOP BETWEEN EC AND GFS BEYOND 48 HOURS.
MORE STABLE GFS SOLUTION PREFERRED THROUGH THE SHORT AND INTO THE MID
TERM. TRENDED EXTENDED HEAVILY TOWARDS HPC SOLUTION.

.UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD AREA OF WEAK UPPER FLOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN AND INTERIOR
ALASKA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS GULF INTO
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST 84 HOURS. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA
COLLAPSES BY TOMORROW MORNING.

.SURFACE ANALYSIS...
A 1003 MB LOW ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF TOMORROW MORNING THEN DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
A 996 MB LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE
BY TOMORROW MORNING. ITS ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS. FRONT IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
OFF QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
A NEW 1008 MB LOW NEAR THE TIP OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL
INTENSIFY TO 988 MB IN THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA THU MORNING THEN
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA TO BE NEAR COLD BAY LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LOW. BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST BEING PUSHED ONSHORE. FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW.
RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF FIRST BERING SEA FRONT TAPERS OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY EVENING AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND LIFTS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. BUT RAIN RETURNS TO THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM. NEXT SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER SO
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE BRIEF...GOOD RIDGING AND CLEARING ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL ONLY
BE GRAZED BY THE PRECIPITATION BAND BUT WILL RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW.
STORM WILL BE AT MAXIMUM INTENSITY THURSDAY EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA. ALASKA PENINSULA...BRISTOL BAY...AND
KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION BUT
SHOULD BE SPARED FROM THE STRONGEST WINDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACING A LARGE INTENSE LOW SOMEWHERE
NEAR COLD BAY THU NIGHT BUT STRUGGLE WITH ITS EVOLUTION BEYOND THAT.
EC SOLUTION TAKES THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AND MAINTAINS THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW FOR LONGER. GFS WEAKENS THE LOW QUICKLY AND KEEPS IT WELL
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. GFS AND EC ALSO DISAGREE ON BOTH STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF NEXT BERING SEA LOW. FORECAST BEYOND 60 HOURS ALL IN ALL
VERY UNCERTAIN BUT WEATHER SHOULD DEFINITELY BE VERY ACTIVE.
THICKNESSES OVER MAINLAND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DROP...SO SNOW
INCREASINGLY BECOMING A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...SUSITNA VALLEY...AND COPPER RIVER BASIN ZONES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 411
         GALES 413 414 170 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB SEP 11