Small Craft Advisory 689, NWS Anchorage, AK

509 
FZAK52 PAFC 271101
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-280300-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 997 MB MB LOW 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY WILL BECOME A 1001 MB 
LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WED NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL
ENTER THE WESTERN BERING TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING WED EVENING. A 989 MB LOW WILL BE 300 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WED
NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-280300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-280300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
8 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-280300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT E OF 160W. SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 5 
FT E OF 160W. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-280300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-280300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-280300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-280300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-280300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-280300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-280300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-280300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-280300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT MON SEP 26 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS. DISAGREMENT IN THE MIDTERM
REGARDING TRACK OF NEXT BIG LOW MOVING OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA. KEPT
CHANGES TO A MINIMUM IN THE LATER PERIODS. NAM AND EC PREFERRED IN
SHORT TERM FOR SUPERIOR RESOLUTION...GFS AND HPC PREFERRED IN THE
MIDTERM FOR THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH INHERITED PACKAGE.

.UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
NORTHWEST PACIFIC. POLAR JET EXTENDING OUT OF EASTERN SIBERIA ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST BERING WILL CONTINUE TO STEER RUSSIAN STORMS INTO THE
BERING AND TOWARDS MAINLAND ALASKA.

.SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST...
A 996 MB LOW ABOUT 250 MILES WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW WILL TRACK
SOUHTHWESTWARD TODAY PASSING OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS IN THE
PROCESS. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND
WEAKEN TO ABOUT 1000 MB ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND
TOMORROW NIGHT. THE LOW FURTHER WEAKENS AS IT CURVES NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FEATURE ON
THE BERING WILL BE TO SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
BERING TODAY. IMPACT OF LOW ON MAINLAND ALASKA AND KODIAK WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS GRAZING COASTAL REGIONS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW EXITS INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG NORTH GULF COAST IS WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT
TO MAINTAIN A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE CHUGACH RANGE. FEW
GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH GAPS TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
WITH WEAK FLOW AT BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT...MAIN CONCERN FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN WILL BE AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE COAST
AND AREAS OF FROST INLAND. MINIMAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ASSIST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MANY AREAS WILL FLIRT WITH THE
FREEZING MARK EACH MORNING THIS WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD A BIT AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH BUILDS OVER BERING SEA AND WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVER GULF OF ALASKA BY END OF WEEK. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR NORTHWEST
PACIFIC AND RUSSIAN STORMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170 172 413
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB SEP 11