Gale Warning 601, NWS Anchorage, AK

510 
FZAK62 PAFC 271101
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-280300-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 997 MB MB LOW NEAR 54N 159W WILL BECOME A 1001 MB LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WED NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE
WESTERN BERING TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WED
EVENING. A 989 MB LOW WILL BE NEAR 57N 174E WED NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ411-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT MON SEP 26 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS. DISAGREMENT IN THE MIDTERM
REGARDING TRACK OF NEXT BIG LOW MOVING OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA. KEPT
CHANGES TO A MINIMUM IN THE LATER PERIODS. NAM AND EC PREFERRED IN
SHORT TERM FOR SUPERIOR RESOLUTION...GFS AND HPC PREFERRED IN THE
MIDTERM FOR THEIR CONSISTENCY WITH INHERITED PACKAGE.

.UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
NORTHWEST PACIFIC. POLAR JET EXTENDING OUT OF EASTERN SIBERIA ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST BERING WILL CONTINUE TO STEER RUSSIAN STORMS INTO THE
BERING AND TOWARDS MAINLAND ALASKA.

.SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST...
A 996 MB LOW ABOUT 250 MILES WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW WILL TRACK
SOUHTHWESTWARD TODAY PASSING OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS IN THE
PROCESS. THE LOW WILL PASS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND
WEAKEN TO ABOUT 1000 MB ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND
TOMORROW NIGHT. THE LOW FURTHER WEAKENS AS IT CURVES NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FEATURE ON
THE BERING WILL BE TO SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
BERING TODAY. IMPACT OF LOW ON MAINLAND ALASKA AND KODIAK WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS GRAZING COASTAL REGIONS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS EVENING AS THE LOW EXITS INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG NORTH GULF COAST IS WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT
TO MAINTAIN A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE CHUGACH RANGE. FEW
GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH GAPS TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
WITH WEAK FLOW AT BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT...MAIN CONCERN FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN WILL BE AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE COAST
AND AREAS OF FROST INLAND. MINIMAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ASSIST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MANY AREAS WILL FLIRT WITH THE
FREEZING MARK EACH MORNING THIS WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD A BIT AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH BUILDS OVER BERING SEA AND WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVER GULF OF ALASKA BY END OF WEEK. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR NORTHWEST
PACIFIC AND RUSSIAN STORMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170 172 413
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB SEP 11