Small Craft Advisory 683, NWS Anchorage, AK

722 
FZAK51 PAFC 231147
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240300-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF THROUGH
SUNDAY.
$$

PKZ120-240300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-240300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-240300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-240300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING NEAR WHITTIER.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS W FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-240300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-240300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-240300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-240300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-240300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 HOURS BUT
MAJOR DIVERGENCE ON SYSTEM ENTERING WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI MORNING.
GFS HAD UNDERGONE A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE INTENSITY OF NORTH PACIFIC LOW
(FORMER TYPHOON ROKE) FROM PREVIOUS DAYS SOLUTIONS.  ECWMF CLOSER IN
ALIGNMENT WITH GFS BUT 4 TO 6 MB DEEPER. IN ANY CASE THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION AND DEPTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
FORTUNATELY THE TRACK SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL
RUN. FORECASTER FOR WESTERN DOMAIN USING SREF MODEL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY MAINLAND ALASKA IS
UNDER A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LIGHT WINDS OVER MOST LAND ZONES WITH EXCEPTION OF BERING REGION
WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY FRI.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...GENERALLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THU THROUGH SAT FOR MOST ZONES. NEXT
MAJOR STORM AS NOTED ABOVE WILL ENTER WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI MORNING.
DESPITE MODEL VARIANCE IT DOES STILL APPEAR THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE
ON THE BACK SIDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CHAIN FRI AND SAT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ALEUTIAN STORM SHOULD MOVE TO THE VICINITY OF
48N 155W SUN MORNING STILL PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS...TRACK AFTER THAT
APPEARS TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE GULF OF AK...BUT SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
WOULD APPEAR THAT BROAD UPPER LOW OVER GULF DOES MIGRATE TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUE ALLOWS A SYSTEM FROM EASTERN SIBERIA TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BERING INTO WESTERN AK TUE EVENING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...ONGOING FLD ADV 121
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NO

JMP SEP 11