Small Craft Advisory 668, NWS Anchorage, AK

389 
FZAK51 PAFC 172318
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181500-
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 998 MB LOW 155 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
AND DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. A STORM FORCE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 
964 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE SUN NIGHT
AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF MON AFTERNOON. THIS LOW MOVES TO 340 NM
SOUTH OF KODIAK MON AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-181500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT SE 25 KT NEAR THE COAST 
E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-181500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-181500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-181500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-181500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-181500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-181500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-181500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT NE WIND 30 KT 
N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-181500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

638 
FZAK51 PAFC 181200
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190300-
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 970 MB LOW 222 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL STRENGTHEN TO 964
MB 242 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK MON MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 193
NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY AT SAME STRENGTH LATE MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-190300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 60 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-190300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-190300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 50
KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-190300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-190300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NORTHWEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO
55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE...E
WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-190300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SE WIND 10 KT
INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT EXCEPT BUILDING TO 7
FT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT...SEAS 13 FT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND
30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO
11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-190300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-190300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-190300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE TWO WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ARE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY
TONIGHT. THE 250 MB JET STREAM MOVES ACROSS THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
AND OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST. THIS
BASIC POSITIONING OF THE JET WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT
IT WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY. THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE OF A
STRONG LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY MONDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM HAS CAUGHT UP TO OTHER MODELS WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THE
MODELS ARE RESOLVING THE TRACK BUT THE TIMING OF THE LOWS MOVEMENT
HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT. GFS AND UKMET HAVE LINED UP NICELY FROM THE
12Z RUN WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER. GOOD CHANCE THEY WILL ALL
CONVERGE ON THE TIMING WITH THE NEXT RUN OR TWO.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST IS PUMPING MOISTURE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE
KENAI PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK
SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE COOK INLET REGION AS WELL AS
THE NORTH GULF COAST.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION
AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LARGE
LOW DIGS A DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL HAVE ITS MEAN AXIS OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF ALASKA.
THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

SEP 11