Gale Warning 642, NWS Anchorage, AK

835 
FZAK51 PAFC 170219 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
615 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

UPDATED ZONES 125 AND 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171500-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 998 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE SAT NIGHT. A 962 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 
200 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAND POINT SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-171500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT E WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT
ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND DIMINISHING TO E 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT NEAR THE COAST 
E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-171500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
615 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK 
ENTRANCE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-171500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-171500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-171500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-171500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-171500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-171500-
KACHEMAK BAY
615 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

739 
FZAK51 PAFC 171159
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180300-
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 998 MB LOW 110 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
AND DISSIPATE LATE SAT NIGHT. A 964 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 280 NM SOUTH
OF CHIGNIK LATE SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-180300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT 25 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT SE 25 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-180300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-180300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-180300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-180300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-180300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-180300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-180300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-180300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE TWO WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ARE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY
TONIGHT. THE 250 MB JET STREAM MOVES ACROSS THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
AND OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST. THIS
BASIC POSITIONING OF THE JET WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT
IT WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY. THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE OF A
STRONG LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS EARLY
SATURDAY AND MOVE SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY MONDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM HAS CAUGHT UP TO OTHER MODELS WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THE
MODELS ARE RESOLVING THE TRACK BUT THE TIMING OF THE LOWS MOVEMENT
HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT. GFS AND UKMET HAVE LINED UP NICELY FROM THE
12Z RUN WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER. GOOD CHANCE THEY WILL ALL
CONVERGE ON THE TIMING WITH THE NEXT RUN OR TWO.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST IS PUMPING MOISTURE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE
KENAI PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK
SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE COOK INLET REGION AS WELL AS
THE NORTH GULF COAST.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION
AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LARGE
LOW DIGS A DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL HAVE ITS MEAN AXIS OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF ALASKA.
THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

SEP 11