Small Craft Advisory 661, NWS Anchorage, AK

261 
FZAK51 PAFC 151524 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
715 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

UPDATE TO ZONES 120 121 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160300-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER KODIAK ISLAND MOVES TOWARD CORDOVA TODAY. A 994
MB LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND THU AFTERNOON MOVES 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND FRI NIGHT AT 1002 MB AND THEN DISSIPATES.
$$

PKZ120-160300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
715 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-160300-
RESURRECTION BAY
715 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-160300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-160300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-160300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT BY MORNING. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-160300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-160300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
715 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-160300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-160300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

010 
FZAK51 PAFC 151643 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
840 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

UPDATED ZONE 121

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160300-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER KODIAK ISLAND MOVES TOWARD CORDOVA TODAY. A 994
MB LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND THU AFTERNOON MOVES 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND FRI NIGHT AT 1002 MB AND THEN DISSIPATES.
$$

PKZ120-160300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
715 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-160300-
RESURRECTION BAY
840 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-160300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-160300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-160300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT BY MORNING. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-160300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-160300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
715 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-160300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-160300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS WERE REASONABLE. FORECAST
TRENDS THROUGH THU NIGHT ARE REASONABLE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT.
THERE IS POOR CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM (84 HRS). MAJOR DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE HANDLING OF
THE WEAKENING LOW MOVING TOWARD SW ALASKA THIS EVENING AND TRIPLE
POINT PLACEMENT IN THE GULF. ALSO THE ECMWF BRINGS AN ANOMALOUSLY
INTENSE LOW INTO THE SE GULF SAT AFTERNOON. SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
LOW IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE SHORT TERM. PLAN FOR NOW IS TO BLEND
CURRENT GRIDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE GFS FOR CONSISTENCY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.UPPER LEVELS(500 MB)...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW SW OF THE
PRIBILOFS TO A LOW CENTER NEAR KODIAK...THEN TO THE SE GULF. THE
TROUGH OVER THE GULF LIFTS NORTH TO OVER THE MAINLAND TONIGHT AND
WEAKENS. THE LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY
TONIGHT...THEN RETROGRADES TO OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND BECOMES
STATIONARY THROUGH SAT MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH ELONGATES SE TO
OVER THE GULF THU NIGHT AND FRI THEN LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS SAT
AFTERNOON.

.SURFACE...
THE A LOW NEAR KODIAK AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE GULF LIFTS NORTH
TONIGHT AND WEAKENS. A 984 MB LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS MOVES THE OVER
KUSKOKWIM BAY THU AFTERNOON THEN RETROGRADES AND WEAKENS OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA FRI. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE
WESTERN AK PEN MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT. THEN
FRONT THEN SLOWS NORTHWARD MOVEMENTS AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES
EAST AND ELONGATES OVER THE SE GULF THU NIGHT AND FRI. A WEAK TRIPLE
POINT CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF THU AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
AND WEAKENS THROUGH FRI. A STRENGTHENING LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA FRI AFTERNOON MOVES RAPIDLY EAST...UNDER A STRONG UPPER JET...TO
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SAT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
STRONG WINDS/GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF.
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST AND LOW TO WEST WILL PRODUCE STRONG GAP LOWS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MAINLAND (TURNAGAIN ARM...PORTAGE...COPPER RIVER)
BEGINNING EARLY THU MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THU EVENING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT/FRI AS
GRADIENTS RELAX. SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GULF THU/THU NIGHT...WITH THE COASTS AND SE EXPOSURES CATCHING
THE MAJORITY OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT RAIN TO BRING MOSTLY
INTO SHOWERS FRI AND SAT.

SOUTHWEST...A FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING
WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTS
AND BRISTOL BAY. EXPECT STRONG GAP FLOWS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RAIN
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW WEAKENS. RAIN WITH FRONT TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS THU
AND FRI. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AK PEN
THU WITH COLD AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN BERING SEA LOW.
WINDS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH FRI NIGHT.

ALEUTIANS...PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW CENTERS TRANSIT EAST THE
AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 155 170 171 AND 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC SEP 11