Gale Warning 591, NWS Anchorage, AK

820 
FZAK62 PAFC 151646 CCA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
845 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

CORRECTED ZONE 411

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-160300-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 990 MB ELONGATED LOW ALONG 59N IN THE NORTHERN BERING EVOLVES INTO
A 994 MB LOW NEAR 59N 172W LATE FRI MORNING. A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 
53N 162E MOVES NEAR 54N 168W FRI EVENING AT 997 MB AND THEN MOVES
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A DEVELOPING 995 MB LOW MOVES TO 53N 168E
FRI EVENING AND THEN 53N 177E SAT MORNING AT 986 MB. A WEATHER FRONT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-160300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
845 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-160300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-160300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-160300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN 
SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

713 
FZAK62 PAFC 152302
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-161500-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 992 MB LOW NEAR 59N 163W MERGES WITH A LOW COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA TO FORM A 993 MB LOW NEAR 58N 176W FRI AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
THEN MOVES TO 57N 172W AT 991 MB SAT AFTERNOON. A 994 MB LOW MOVES TO
53N 174E SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS WERE REASONABLE. FORECAST
TRENDS THROUGH THU NIGHT ARE REASONABLE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT.
THERE IS POOR CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM (84 HRS). MAJOR DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE HANDLING OF
THE WEAKENING LOW MOVING TOWARD SW ALASKA THIS EVENING AND TRIPLE
POINT PLACEMENT IN THE GULF. ALSO THE ECMWF BRINGS AN ANOMALOUSLY
INTENSE LOW INTO THE SE GULF SAT AFTERNOON. SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
LOW IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE SHORT TERM. PLAN FOR NOW IS TO BLEND
CURRENT GRIDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE GFS FOR CONSISTENCY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.UPPER LEVELS(500 MB)...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW SW OF THE
PRIBILOFS TO A LOW CENTER NEAR KODIAK...THEN TO THE SE GULF. THE
TROUGH OVER THE GULF LIFTS NORTH TO OVER THE MAINLAND TONIGHT AND
WEAKENS. THE LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY
TONIGHT...THEN RETROGRADES TO OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND BECOMES
STATIONARY THROUGH SAT MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH ELONGATES SE TO
OVER THE GULF THU NIGHT AND FRI THEN LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS SAT
AFTERNOON.

.SURFACE...
THE A LOW NEAR KODIAK AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE GULF LIFTS NORTH
TONIGHT AND WEAKENS. A 984 MB LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS MOVES THE OVER
KUSKOKWIM BAY THU AFTERNOON THEN RETROGRADES AND WEAKENS OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA FRI. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE
WESTERN AK PEN MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT. THEN
FRONT THEN SLOWS NORTHWARD MOVEMENTS AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES
EAST AND ELONGATES OVER THE SE GULF THU NIGHT AND FRI. A WEAK TRIPLE
POINT CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF THU AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
AND WEAKENS THROUGH FRI. A STRENGTHENING LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA FRI AFTERNOON MOVES RAPIDLY EAST...UNDER A STRONG UPPER JET...TO
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SAT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
STRONG WINDS/GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF.
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST AND LOW TO WEST WILL PRODUCE STRONG GAP LOWS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MAINLAND (TURNAGAIN ARM...PORTAGE...COPPER RIVER)
BEGINNING EARLY THU MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THU EVENING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT/FRI AS
GRADIENTS RELAX. SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GULF THU/THU NIGHT...WITH THE COASTS AND SE EXPOSURES CATCHING
THE MAJORITY OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT RAIN TO BRING MOSTLY
INTO SHOWERS FRI AND SAT.

SOUTHWEST...A FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING
WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTS
AND BRISTOL BAY. EXPECT STRONG GAP FLOWS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RAIN
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOW WEAKENS. RAIN WITH FRONT TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS THU
AND FRI. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AK PEN
THU WITH COLD AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN BERING SEA LOW.
WINDS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH FRI NIGHT.

ALEUTIANS...PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW CENTERS TRANSIT EAST THE
AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 155 170 171 AND 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC SEP 11