Small Craft Advisory 658, NWS Anchorage, AK

041 
FZAK52 PAFC 141224 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
425 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

UPDATE ZONE 171

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-150300-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 985 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF ADAK MOVES OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THU
AFTERNOON AT 992 MB AND THEN MOVES ONSHORE. A 991 MB LOW 200 NM WEST
OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND MOVES 175 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND FRI
AFTERNOON AT 992 MB. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING
THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-150300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-150300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-150300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-150300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-150300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-150300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-150300-
UNALASKA BAY
425 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-150300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-150300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-150300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-150300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-150300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

088 
FZAK52 PAFC 142353
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-151500-
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 984 MB LOW OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS MOVES TO 40 NM SOUTH OF KIPNUK
AT 990 MB THU AFTERNOON. THIS LOW THEN MOVES TO 80 NM NORTHWEST OF
SAINT PAUL ISLAND AT 994 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-151500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-151500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-151500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-151500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-151500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT THIS EVENING BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-151500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-151500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-151500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-151500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-151500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-151500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-151500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW WIND 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SURFACE
WEATHER FEATURES THIS MORNING.  AS PER USUAL GFS RUNS A FEW MB DEEPER
ON CENTRAL PRESSURES.  MAIN FEATURE IS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE BERING SEA...ACTUALLY A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED SURFACE LOWS
PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN RESULTS IS A SERIES OF FRONTS
AND WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN INTO THE GULF.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR KODIAK ISLAND IS GENERATING ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND COOK INLET...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WED NIGHT. PARENT LOW IN CENTRAL BERING WILL PRODUCE STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE CHAIN AND SOUTHERN BERING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING...CLOUDY PERIODS OF RAIN WITH STRONG NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

SOUTHWEST...FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING BRING SHOWERS FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING ALSO PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND MODERATE EAST WINDS.

SOUTHCENTRAL...SHOWERS TODAY WITH GAP WINDS. NEXT FRONT MOVES OVER
KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING AND INTO COOK INLET BY MIDNIGHT. LOOKS AS
CONTINUED STRONG EAST WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THU
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF TRIES TO BUILD ON FRI.
GENERALLY VARIABLE CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON FRI AND SAT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NEXT MAJOR FEATURE IS A NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SAT MORNING WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES
ACROSS THE CHAIN REACHING DUTCH HARBOR SUN MORNING. FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVED INTO WESTERN GULF SUN AFTERNOON
AND THEN SWING NORTHWARD ON SUN EVENING. BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
IN ALEUTIANS...KODIAK...AND NORTH GULF COAST...SHOULD PRODUCE PLENTY
OF RAIN. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF MINIMAL IMPACT WEST OF 160W IN
SOUTHWEST REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP SEP 11