Small Craft Advisory 656, NWS Anchorage, AK

073 
FZAK51 PAFC 141148
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150300-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH WED NIGHT.
A 993 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK CITY THU MORNING MOVES 150 NM SOUTH OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND THU NIGHT AT 1000 MB. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF THU MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-150300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-150300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-150300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-150300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-150300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-150300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FOOT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-150300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NE 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO
5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 10 KT. SEA 2
FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-150300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
AND REASONABLE. SYNOPTIC 500 MB HT AND VORTICITY TRENDS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM(FRI AFTERNOON) ARE SIMILAR...THOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM. SURFACE MSLP FIELDS
THROUGH 48-60 HRS ARE REASONABLE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY
WITH 980S LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA. MODELS STRUGGLE
THOUGH WITH TRIPLE POINT PLACEMENT IN THE GULF THU AND FRI...HOWEVER
THE PRESSURE PATTERN/GRADIENTS ARE SIMILAR.

ANALYSIS
.UPPER LEVELS(500MB)...
SNAP SHOT...AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDS SE FROM A LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA A LOW SOUTH OF THE AK PEN. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.

THE GULF TROUGH ROTATES NORTH TO OVER THE MAINLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE AK PEN AND ASSOCIATED TRAILING TROUGH
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE GULF TONIGHT. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO THE EASTERN GULF
WED EVENING. THE BERING SEA CENTER BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE AS IT
MOVES TO OVER SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY THU MORNING. THE LOW CENTER
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH ELONGATES SE  FRI.
A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA FRI WITH A STRONG
NEARLY ZONAL JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.

SURFACE...
SNAP SHOT...PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE BUILDING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
ALASKA COAST AS A STRONG TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH. A LOW
COMPLEX IS EVIDENT OVER BRISTOL BAY/AK PEN WITH A TROUGH BRINGING
RAIN TO SW ALASKA. A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS
GENERATING GALES ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...GRADIENTS WILL START TO RELAX ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF MOVES
NORTH AND WEAKENS...THOUGH GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. GRADIENTS AND WINDS IN GENERAL WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
ON WED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
WITH BRISK GAP FLOWS BEGINNING EARLY THU MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THU NIGHT AS A TRIPLE POINT AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN GULF. THE BRUNT OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
BE GENERALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. MODEL
PROJECTED QPF VALUES OF 2-3.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN KENAI PEN THROUGH WED NIGHT. CURRENT PROJECTIONS OF QPF/RIVER
LEVELS SHOULD NOT POSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
THE BRISTOL BAY MOVES NORTH. RAIN WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH SOME WED AS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND EAST. STRONG LOW MOVES TO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING TO WESTERN BRISTOL
BAY WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING BRISK EAST TO SE WINDS...
ESPECIALLY THROUGH ZONE 161...AND SPREAD RAIN TO NEAR THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN BERING SEA LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND THU
MORNING AS THE FRONT ELONGATES SE. SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT OVER
TO SHOWERS AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH WINDY AND WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND PORTIONS OF THE BERING SEA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOWS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
MOVES TO EASTERN BERING SEA WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRONG
WINDS/GALES...ESPECIALLY IN THE COLD AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW AS IT
MOVES RAPIDLY EAST. WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE WEST ALEUTIANS/BERING
WED...HOWEVER THEY INCREASE AGAIN AS NEXT CENTER AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATE WED NIGHT/THU.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS TODAY WILL ACT TO
REINFORCE THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND CENTER ITSELF OVER
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. THE PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP FOR MULTIPLE
AMPLIFYING DISTURBANCES FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA ACROSS THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUING AN ACTIVE EARLY
FALL PATTERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 155 170 172 AND 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC SEP 11