Small Craft Advisory 650, NWS Anchorage, AK

464 
FZAK51 PAFC 121132
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-130300-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 991 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MOVES TUE MORNING 125
NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 995 MB AND THEN MERGES WITH A LOW OVER THE
AK PEN.
$$

PKZ120-130300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-130300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-130300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT INCREASING TO N 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-130300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-130300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-130300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-130300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-130300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-130300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
600 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER MAP. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA ENCOMPASSES THE WEST AND CENTRAL BERING. A MUCH SMALLER BUT
STILL IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
STILL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE AKPEN.  MEANWHILE...A BROAD
RIDGE THAT COVERS THE ALASKA MAINLAND IS TEMPORARILY KEEPING THINGS
QUIET ACROSS THE MAINLAND.

.AT THE SURFACE...TWO MAIN FRONTS ARE POISED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
FORECAST REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STRONG WARM FRONT LIES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH KODIAK ISLAND BY
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT THAT STRETCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING HAS ALREADY BROUGHT GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH TO
THE PRIBILOFS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD
ACROSS THE ALASKA MAINLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL HELP TO
INTENSIFY GAP WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTS ACROSS THE BERING AND
GULF OF ALASKA IN SPITE OF THEIR RELATIVE WEAKNESS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GENERAL SYNOPTIC
FEATURES BUT DIVERGE ON THE MAGNITUDE ON GAP WINDS. IN THE EXTENDED
MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF FEATURES BUT ARE IN BROAD
AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
SOUTHCENTRAL ZONE SUNDAY LIMITING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST BRINGING
STEADY RAIN TO THE EAST GULF COAST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE NORTH
GULF COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH
THIS SYSTEM BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PERPENDICULAR FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT DOWNSLOPING AND LIMIT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL...WEST KENAI PENINSULA..AND MATANUSKA VALLEY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TODAY AS A FRONT IN THE BERING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
A FRONT FROM THE GULF APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GULF FRONT WILL REACH THE AKPEN BY LATE TONIGHT AND BRISTOL
BAY BY MONDAY MORNING. A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL HELP TO SUPPORT STRONG GUSTS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN
THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE STARTING SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE... THE BERING FRONT WILL BRING STRONG
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST BY MID MORNING
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...AN IMPRESSIVE FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
BRINGING GUSTS TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS STRENGTHENING AS IT
PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL
REACH DUTCH HARBOR BY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SUPPORT STEADY
RAIN TODAY AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
THIS FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND DISSIPATE
KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TODAY BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST... A DYNAMIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOWS MOVE ACROSS THE BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE... 130 132 138 170 172 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ELN SEP 11