Gale Warning 635, NWS Anchorage, AK

309 
FZAK52 PAFC 121138
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-130300-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A 991 MB LOW 50 NM NORTH OF ATTU MON EVENING
MOVES 50 NM WEST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND WED MORNING AT 987 MB. A 989 MB
LOW 75 NM WEST OF PILOT POINT MON EVENING MOVES 60 NM WEST OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND TUE NIGHT AT 990 MB AND DISSIPATES.

$$

PKZ150-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-130300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-130300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-130300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-130300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-130300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-130300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
600 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER MAP. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA ENCOMPASSES THE WEST AND CENTRAL BERING. A MUCH SMALLER BUT
STILL IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
STILL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE AKPEN.  MEANWHILE...A BROAD
RIDGE THAT COVERS THE ALASKA MAINLAND IS TEMPORARILY KEEPING THINGS
QUIET ACROSS THE MAINLAND.

.AT THE SURFACE...TWO MAIN FRONTS ARE POISED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
FORECAST REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STRONG WARM FRONT LIES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH KODIAK ISLAND BY
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT THAT STRETCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING HAS ALREADY BROUGHT GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH TO
THE PRIBILOFS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD
ACROSS THE ALASKA MAINLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL HELP TO
INTENSIFY GAP WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTS ACROSS THE BERING AND
GULF OF ALASKA IN SPITE OF THEIR RELATIVE WEAKNESS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GENERAL SYNOPTIC
FEATURES BUT DIVERGE ON THE MAGNITUDE ON GAP WINDS. IN THE EXTENDED
MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF FEATURES BUT ARE IN BROAD
AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
SOUTHCENTRAL ZONE SUNDAY LIMITING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST BRINGING
STEADY RAIN TO THE EAST GULF COAST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE NORTH
GULF COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH
THIS SYSTEM BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PERPENDICULAR FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT DOWNSLOPING AND LIMIT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL...WEST KENAI PENINSULA..AND MATANUSKA VALLEY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TODAY AS A FRONT IN THE BERING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
A FRONT FROM THE GULF APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GULF FRONT WILL REACH THE AKPEN BY LATE TONIGHT AND BRISTOL
BAY BY MONDAY MORNING. A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL HELP TO SUPPORT STRONG GUSTS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN
THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE STARTING SUNDAY EVENING AND LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE... THE BERING FRONT WILL BRING STRONG
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST BY MID MORNING
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...AN IMPRESSIVE FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
BRINGING GUSTS TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS STRENGTHENING AS IT
PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL
REACH DUTCH HARBOR BY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SUPPORT STEADY
RAIN TODAY AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
THIS FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND DISSIPATE
KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY. A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TODAY BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST... A DYNAMIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOWS MOVE ACROSS THE BERING AND GULF OF ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE... 130 132 138 170 172 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ELN SEP 11