Small Craft Advisory 613, NWS Anchorage, AK

633 
FZAK52 PAFC 302318
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-311500-
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH WED MORNING. A 997 MB LOW OVER
EASTERN RUSSIA ON TUE NIGHT WILL MOVE TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND AT 1004
MB THU.
$$

PKZ150-311500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-311500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-311500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 20 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-311500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 25 KT EARLY THIS EVENING. SEAS 7
FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-311500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-311500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...BERING SIDE...SW WIND 35 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SW WIND 15
KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-311500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 
FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-311500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 
FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-311500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-311500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-311500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.WED...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. E OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 F. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-311500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT MON AUG 29 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE WILL RELY MAINLY ON THE NAM
ON THE EAST DOMAIN WHICH COVERS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF OF
ALASKA...WITH THE GFS PREFERRED OVER THE WEST DOMAIN WHICH COVERS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA REGION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A BAGGY RIDGE ALOFT RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING BEAUTIFUL WEATHER BOTH
SUNDAY AND TODAY IS SEEING A PLETHORA OF DISTURBANCES WHICH ARE ONE
BY ONE ERODING ITS GRASP OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. THE FIRST SUCH DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING WAS UNSUCCESSFUL
AND FELL APART AS IT APPROACHED THE COOK INLET REGION. A SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THIS EVENING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A CONSOLIDATING AND CONSIDERABLY STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL GATHER
STEAM OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
MOST OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION AND SIGNAL THE ULTIMATE DEMISE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT.

OVER THE BERING...A LARGE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO A MORE POTENT TROUGH ALOFT...THEN WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS IT GATHERS SUPPORT FROM A STRONG JET
SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS JET STREAK WILL
USHER COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON TUESDAY AND OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM...ANOTHER STRONG JET STREAK WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG LOW AS IT
DEPARTS EASTERN RUSSIA FOR THE NORTHERN BERING SEA ON WEDNESDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...

CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH CLOUDS AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH TUESDAY. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INLAND...LARGELY CONFINED TO THE TALKEETNA AND ALASKA MOUNTAIN
RANGES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE COOK INLET REGION AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ANY ONE
LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS STRONG RESISTANCE FROM THE SLOWLY
DEPARTING RIDGE ALOFT.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING ALONG WITH A 130-KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK WILL PUSH WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ON TUESDAY TO THE
NORTH GULF ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF A RELATIVELY
WEAK BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AS WELL AS INCREASING
WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES INTO SOUTH AND WEST PARTS OF ANCHORAGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

A VERY ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SEE CONTINUED
PERIODS OF RAIN FALL OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL KEEP THE BERING UNSETTLED WITH SYSTEMS
MOVING FROM RUSSIA EAST ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL LIKELY ESCAPE MOST OF
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK STAYS CONFINED
NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS...THE GENERAL
TREND IS TOWARDS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING SEA OR SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO THE SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AS
STRONG RIDGES ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND OVER
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN RAIN ALONG THE GULF
COAST WITH DIURNAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29 AUG 11