Gale Warning 534, NWS Anchorage, AK

807 
FZAK62 PAFC 302318
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-311500-
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH WED MORNING. A 997 MB LOW OVER
EASTERN RUSSIA ON TUE NIGHT WILL MOVE TO NEAR 60N 167W AT 1004 MB
THU.

$$

PKZ411-311500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-311500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-311500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-311500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

JAM

864 
FZAK62 PAFC 311151
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-010300-
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 997 MB LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE TO NEAR 61N 173W AT 998 MB
WED NIGHT AND WEAKEN TO 1004 MB NEAR 59N 164W AT THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 312324
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-011500-
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 997 MB LOW NEAR 61N 180 WILL MOVE TO NEAR 59N 168W AT 1002 MB
THU AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO NEAR 55N 159W AT 1003 MB THU NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA FRI. 
A WEATHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING FRI MORNING.
$$

PKZ411-011500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-011500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT SHIFTING TO NW TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-011500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-011500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT MON AUG 29 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE WILL RELY MAINLY ON THE NAM
ON THE EAST DOMAIN WHICH COVERS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF OF
ALASKA...WITH THE GFS PREFERRED OVER THE WEST DOMAIN WHICH COVERS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA REGION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A BAGGY RIDGE ALOFT RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING BEAUTIFUL WEATHER BOTH
SUNDAY AND TODAY IS SEEING A PLETHORA OF DISTURBANCES WHICH ARE ONE
BY ONE ERODING ITS GRASP OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. THE FIRST SUCH DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING WAS UNSUCCESSFUL
AND FELL APART AS IT APPROACHED THE COOK INLET REGION. A SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THIS EVENING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A CONSOLIDATING AND CONSIDERABLY STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL GATHER
STEAM OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
MOST OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION AND SIGNAL THE ULTIMATE DEMISE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT.

OVER THE BERING...A LARGE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO A MORE POTENT TROUGH ALOFT...THEN WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS IT GATHERS SUPPORT FROM A STRONG JET
SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS JET STREAK WILL
USHER COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON TUESDAY AND OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM...ANOTHER STRONG JET STREAK WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG LOW AS IT
DEPARTS EASTERN RUSSIA FOR THE NORTHERN BERING SEA ON WEDNESDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...

CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH CLOUDS AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH TUESDAY. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INLAND...LARGELY CONFINED TO THE TALKEETNA AND ALASKA MOUNTAIN
RANGES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE COOK INLET REGION AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ANY ONE
LOCATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS STRONG RESISTANCE FROM THE SLOWLY
DEPARTING RIDGE ALOFT.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING ALONG WITH A 130-KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK WILL PUSH WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ON TUESDAY TO THE
NORTH GULF ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF A RELATIVELY
WEAK BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AS WELL AS INCREASING
WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES INTO SOUTH AND WEST PARTS OF ANCHORAGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

A VERY ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SEE CONTINUED
PERIODS OF RAIN FALL OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL KEEP THE BERING UNSETTLED WITH SYSTEMS
MOVING FROM RUSSIA EAST ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL LIKELY ESCAPE MOST OF
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK STAYS CONFINED
NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS...THE GENERAL
TREND IS TOWARDS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING SEA OR SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO THE SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AS
STRONG RIDGES ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND OVER
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN RAIN ALONG THE GULF
COAST WITH DIURNAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29 AUG 11