Small Craft Advisory 609, NWS Anchorage, AK

255 
FZAK51 PAFC 281719 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
915 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

UPDATED AREA 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-290300-
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1005 MB LOW 130 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 100 NM
SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AT 1012 MB SUN EVENING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-290300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 10 KT EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-290300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-290300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-290300-
PASSAGE CANAL
915 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-290300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT BY
NOON. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NW WIND
15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-290300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-290300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SW WIND 15 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-290300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-290300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

858 
FZAK51 PAFC 282058 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
100 PM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

UPDATED AREA 121

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-290300-
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1005 MB LOW 130 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 100 NM
SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AT 1012 MB SUN EVENING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-290300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 10 KT EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-290300-
RESURRECTION BAY
100 PM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-290300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-290300-
PASSAGE CANAL
915 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-290300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT BY
NOON. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NW WIND
15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-290300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-290300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SW WIND 15 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-290300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-290300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

454 
FZAK51 PAFC 282310
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-291500-
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1009 MB LOW 185 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA MON. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST GULF MON EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TUE AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-291500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-291500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-291500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-291500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35 
KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-291500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-291500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-291500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-291500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-291500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...RATHER ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TODAY
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST EAST OF KAMCHATKA AND A CUT OFF LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE 250 MB JET STREAM CUTS UNDER THE KAMCHATKA
LOW AND OVER THE ALEUTIANS IN A AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THEN
HEADS SOUTHWARD AND UNDER THE GULF LOW. THE STRONG TROUGH NEAR
KAMCHATKA IS ALLOWING PLENTY OF ENERGY TO DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WHILE JUST MILKING ALONG THE
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.
THERE IS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA WHICH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BRINGING A SHOT OF CLEARING WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MAINLAND SOUTHERN ALASKA.
THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO DISPLACE THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE
EAST WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE NOW PERFORMING WELL ESPECIALLY IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE FORECAST AREA IS TOWARD THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE LARGE LOW
APPROACHING THE AREA FASTER AND DEEPER THAN THE NAM OR GFS. SATELLITE
LOOKS TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION SO THAT IS THE ONE BEING USED IN
THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO
COASTAL AREAS WHILE A SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO INLAND AREAS FROM THE KENAI
PENINSULA THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY.
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT MORE UNSTABLE IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
AND BRISTOL BAY REGION WHERE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF THE BERING SEA WILL KEEP SOME AREAS OF STRATUS AND DRIZZLE AROUND
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS...HOWEVER THERE ARE LARGE
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS AS WELL THAT WILL BRING PARTIAL CLEARING TO
SOME OF THIS AREA. FARTHER WEST THERE WILL BE RAIN AND GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH THE LOW ENTERING THAT REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AFTER A LOW PASSES THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND
INTO THE MAINLAND BY MIDWEEK...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN END OF NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DISAGREEMENT...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA.
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS RIDGE WILL DICTATE HOW NICE THE WEATHER
WILL GET OVER MAINLAND ALASKA....HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT MAY SET UP BIT TOO FAR TO THE WEST TO INHIBIT DAILY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AUG 11