Gale Warning 532, NWS Anchorage, AK

284 
FZAK62 PAFC 281151
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-290300-
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 995 MB LOW NEAR 51N 176E WILL MOVE TO 56N 172W AT 1000 MB SUN
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO 63N 173W AT 998 MB MON NIGHT. A 991 MB
LOW NEAR 56N 170E WILL MOVE TO 58N 175W AT 1003 MB MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.TONIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 27 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...RATHER ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TODAY
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST EAST OF KAMCHATKA AND A CUT OFF LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE 250 MB JET STREAM CUTS UNDER THE KAMCHATKA
LOW AND OVER THE ALEUTIANS IN A AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THEN
HEADS SOUTHWARD AND UNDER THE GULF LOW. THE STRONG TROUGH NEAR
KAMCHATKA IS ALLOWING PLENTY OF ENERGY TO DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WHILE JUST MILKING ALONG THE
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.
THERE IS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA WHICH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BRINGING A SHOT OF CLEARING WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
FOR MAINLAND SOUTHERN ALASKA.
THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO DISPLACE THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE
EAST WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE NOW PERFORMING WELL ESPECIALLY IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE FORECAST AREA IS TOWARD THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE LARGE LOW
APPROACHING THE AREA FASTER AND DEEPER THAN THE NAM OR GFS. SATELLITE
LOOKS TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION SO THAT IS THE ONE BEING USED IN
THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO
COASTAL AREAS WHILE A SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO INLAND AREAS FROM THE KENAI
PENINSULA THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY.
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT MORE UNSTABLE IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
AND BRISTOL BAY REGION WHERE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHERLY FLOW
OFF THE BERING SEA WILL KEEP SOME AREAS OF STRATUS AND DRIZZLE AROUND
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS...HOWEVER THERE ARE LARGE
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS AS WELL THAT WILL BRING PARTIAL CLEARING TO
SOME OF THIS AREA. FARTHER WEST THERE WILL BE RAIN AND GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH THE LOW ENTERING THAT REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AFTER A LOW PASSES THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND
INTO THE MAINLAND BY MIDWEEK...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN END OF NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DISAGREEMENT...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA.
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS RIDGE WILL DICTATE HOW NICE THE WEATHER
WILL GET OVER MAINLAND ALASKA....HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT MAY SET UP BIT TOO FAR TO THE WEST TO INHIBIT DAILY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AUG 11