Small Craft Advisory 60, NWS Anchorage, AK

748 
FZAK52 PAFC 211526 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
626 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-220300-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED WEATHER FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BERING TO THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH SAT MORNING. A 991 MB
LOW NEAR 450 NM S OF SAND POINT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF AT 986 MB
FRI EVENING. A LARGE 970 MB LOW 500 NM S OF ADAK FRI EVENING WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 950 MB AS IT MOVES TO 280 NM SE OF ATKA LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-220300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-220300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-220300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-220300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-220300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-220300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC 
SIDE.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-220300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-220300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC 
SIDE.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-220300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-220300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-220300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-220300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

993 
FZAK52 PAFC 220001
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221500-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 988 MB LOW 170 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
AT 986 MB THIS EVENING. A 989 MB LOW 80 NM NORTH OF COLD BAY MOVES TO
70 NM WEST OF PILOT POINT AT 993 MB SAT MORNING AND DISSIPATES. A
LARGE 965 MB LOW CENTERED 500 NM SOUTH OF ADAK FRI EVENING MOVES TO
190 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 955 MB SUN AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-221500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-221500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-221500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-221500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-221500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 35 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-221500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC
SIDE...SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-221500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-221500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...SW WIND 15 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SW WIND 
15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT
PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT.  NE WIND 40 KT WEST OF 173 WEST. 
BERING SIDE...SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-221500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-221500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NE 30 KT W OF ATTU ISLAND. 
SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-221500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-221500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST THU JAN 20 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO TAKE HOLD OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE GULF. THE DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT THAT PUSHED
ONSHORE YESTERDAY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA ALONG A LINE FROM
BETHEL TO THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL COPPER
RIVER BASIN. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS EXIST ALONG THE LENGTH OF THIS
FRONT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM AS WARM MOIST AIR OVERRUNS THE COOLER ARCTIC AIR MASS
STILL TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. A LARGE STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN...WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS LOW THAT SPIN UP INTO NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AS THEY ROTATE
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE AKPEN AND THE GULF. ONE SUCH SURFACE LOW IS
LOCATED NEAR SAND POINT AND IS POISED TO ENTER THE GULF LATE TONIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS PROBLEMS AND UNCERTAINTIES EXIST WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS
ACROSS ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN INITIALIZING POORLY WITH THE FAST
TRACKING WEATHER SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...THUS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THESE SYSTEMS ARISE
WITHIN 24 HOURS OUT. THE MODELS ALSO HAVE POOR RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO CHOOSE WHICH ONE TO USE FOR THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE POOR STATE OF THE MODELS...THIS
AFTERNOON'S FORECAST USED MOSTLY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A SMALL
BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF SINCE IT INITIALIZED THE BEST WITH REGARDS TO
THE CURRENT LOW NEAR THE AKPEN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE STALLED REMNANTS OF
YESTERDAY'S OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT OVER
THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHERN ALASKA ALONG WITH ANY REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS. A CLOUD DECK SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
ALREADY PUSHING ONSHORE OVER THE AKPEN AND WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD
AND ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE KILBUCK
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST
LOW ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE
GULF COAST. A POTENT WEATHER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALASKA ON SUNDAY MORNING.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH SUB-GALE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THE NORM ACROSS THE
REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING AND THE
AKPEN...WHERE A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND GRAZE THE REGION BEFORE CURVING EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM IS POISED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FINALLY MIGRATES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MAINLAND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REDEVELOPS OVER THE BERING SEA
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GENERATES MORE SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...132.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KS JAN 11