Gale Warning 25, NWS Anchorage, AK

081 
FZAK62 PAFC 220001
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-221500-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 988 MB LOW NEAR 54N 154W MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AT 986 MB
THIS EVENING. A 989 MB LOW NEAR 57N 163W MOVES TO 57N 160W AT 993 MB
SAT MORNING AND DISSIPATES. A LARGE 965 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 43N 177W
FRI EVENING MOVES TO 51N 169W AT 955 MB SUN AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ411-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. 
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

066 
FZAK62 PAFC 221216
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-230300-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A LARGE 961 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 46N 176W STRENGTHENS TO 954 MB AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR 50N 171W SAT NIGHT...THEN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
WHILE WEAKENING TO 961 MB SUN NIGHT. A SERIES OF FRONTS BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH TOWARDS THE BRISTOL BAY REGION BEGINNING SAT EVENING. 

$$

PKZ411-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 TO 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
16 TO 20 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

256 
FZAK62 PAFC 230025
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-231500-
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A LARGE 957 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 47N 173W STRENGTHENS TO 953 MB AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR 51N 170W SUN MORNING. THE LOW THEN WEAKENS TO 965 MB
SUN NIGHT NEAR COLD BAY.
$$

PKZ411-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 23 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT S OF 57
N. SEAS 22 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 23 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
28 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 22 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 22 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 23 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 22 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST THU JAN 20 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO TAKE HOLD OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE GULF. THE DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT THAT PUSHED
ONSHORE YESTERDAY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA ALONG A LINE FROM
BETHEL TO THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL COPPER
RIVER BASIN. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS EXIST ALONG THE LENGTH OF THIS
FRONT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM AS WARM MOIST AIR OVERRUNS THE COOLER ARCTIC AIR MASS
STILL TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. A LARGE STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN...WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS LOW THAT SPIN UP INTO NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AS THEY ROTATE
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE AKPEN AND THE GULF. ONE SUCH SURFACE LOW IS
LOCATED NEAR SAND POINT AND IS POISED TO ENTER THE GULF LATE TONIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS PROBLEMS AND UNCERTAINTIES EXIST WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS
ACROSS ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN INITIALIZING POORLY WITH THE FAST
TRACKING WEATHER SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...THUS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THESE SYSTEMS ARISE
WITHIN 24 HOURS OUT. THE MODELS ALSO HAVE POOR RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO CHOOSE WHICH ONE TO USE FOR THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE POOR STATE OF THE MODELS...THIS
AFTERNOON'S FORECAST USED MOSTLY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A SMALL
BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF SINCE IT INITIALIZED THE BEST WITH REGARDS TO
THE CURRENT LOW NEAR THE AKPEN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE STALLED REMNANTS OF
YESTERDAY'S OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT OVER
THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHERN ALASKA ALONG WITH ANY REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS. A CLOUD DECK SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
ALREADY PUSHING ONSHORE OVER THE AKPEN AND WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD
AND ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE KILBUCK
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST
LOW ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE
GULF COAST. A POTENT WEATHER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALASKA ON SUNDAY MORNING.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH SUB-GALE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THE NORM ACROSS THE
REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING AND THE
AKPEN...WHERE A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND GRAZE THE REGION BEFORE CURVING EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM IS POISED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
FINALLY MIGRATES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MAINLAND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REDEVELOPS OVER THE BERING SEA
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GENERATES MORE SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...132.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KS JAN 11