Small Craft Advisory 567, NWS Anchorage, AK

309 
FZAK51 PAFC 141153
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150300-
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 1002 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 75 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE 160 NM SOUTHWEST OF CORDOVA AT 998
MB MONDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-150300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE
WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 35 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-150300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-150300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FOOT
INCREASING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MORNING FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-150300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-150300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-150300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-150300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
4 FT EXCEPT 1 FOOT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT EXCEPT 3 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.  
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT EXCEPT 3 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
N OF KALGIN ISLAND...SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-150300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  AT THE SURFACE THE
PREFERENCE IS THE NAM/ECMWF MAINLY FOR THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE
LOW FORMING OVER THE GULF SUNDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE STRONG BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN BREAKING DOWN BY MONDAY. THE
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA WILL TRACK OVER THE COASTAL REGION OF
SOUTHCENTRAL BY LATE SUNDAY. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP AND HANG
BACK OVER WESTERN SOUTHCENTRAL WHILE THE MAIN LOW TRACKS EAST NEAR
YAKUTAT BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF JET STREAM ATOP RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN BERING AND DROPPING DOWN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW SUNDAY MORNING AND DRIFT EAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
LIKELY RAIN OVER MOST AREAS BY TONIGHT WITH THE LOW DROPPING DOWN.
RAIN SHOULD LAST INTO SUNDAY AND CHANGING BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM THE NORTH SPREADING SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE MAINLAND BY MONDAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEK.

SOUTHWEST...
WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN EXPECT RAIN OR SHOWERS TO BEGIN
AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE DELTA AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER BRISTOL BAY. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO NEAR COASTAL AREAS...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.

BERING/ALEUTIANS...
LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING
THROUGH TONIGHT. ONCE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY EXPECT
COOLER AIR ALOFT TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WITH LESS FOG AND MORE SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
GFS/ECMWF ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN
BEYOND DAY FOUR. A BROAD TROUGH PERSISTING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING FROM ASIA INTO THE BERING SEA MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH SO CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES FURTHER OUT IN TIME. FOR
MAINLAND ALASKA EXPECT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PRIMARILY
DIURNAL IN NATURE...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF SUN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AUG 11