Gale Warning 550, NWS Anchorage, AK

225 
FZAK51 PAFC 142321
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151500-
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1003 MB LOW 80 NM WEST MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 70 NM SOUTH OF
YAKUTAT AT 995 MB MON AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE LATE MON NIGHT. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN GULF ON TUE.
$$

PKZ120-151500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. ALONG THE COAST E OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...E
WIND 25 KT...GUSTING TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN 
SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-151500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-151500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-151500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR
WHITTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-151500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-151500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-151500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-151500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

.TONIGHT...N OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. S OF KALGIN
ISLAND...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-151500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT 
BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA BUT IT IS
STARTING TO WEAKEN. AN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST ALASKA AND
HAS INTENSIFIED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINLAND. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE UPPER SYSTEMS
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND A TROUGH WITH MANY MINOR
LOWS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ALASKA. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND REMAINS CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVER THE
ALEUTIANS, BERING SEA AND THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL SECTIONS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THE NAM IS PREFERRED OVER THE GFS
OVER THE GULF BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO HANDLE THE SURFACE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST BETTER. THE COLD UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA MONDAY. A TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE BERING SEA AND WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AS
IT IS DISPLACED INTO THE WESTERN BERING MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL SPREAD SOUTH
AND WEST TO THE REST OF MAINLAND ALASKA TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY. AREAS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AROUND KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AREAS OF RAIN OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA WILL SPREAD
SOUTH INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT AND
BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH
WILL REDUCE THE FOG AND PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A UPPER
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRIFT
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM AUG 11