Small Craft Advisory 555, NWS Anchorage, AK

846 
FZAK52 PAFC 082331
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091500-
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1003 MB LOW NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND MOVES INTO NORTON SOUND AND
WEAKENS THIS EVENING. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN BERING MOVES
TO BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING. A 980 MB LOW MOVES TO 290 NM WEST OF
SHEMYA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-091500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-091500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.   

$$

PKZ160-091500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-091500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-091500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-091500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-091500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-091500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.   

$$

PKZ175-091500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-091500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.   

$$

PKZ185-091500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S 25 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-091500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...500 MB HT AND MSLP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ARE
REASONABLE AS WELL AS FORECAST TREND THROUGH WED AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF THE MAINLAND AND EASTERN BERING SEA. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING SOME
WITH THE REMNANTS OF A TYPHOON HEADING TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WED. THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH THE NAM AS THE OUTLIER. GRIDS IN THE EAST DOMAIN WILL BE
FRESHENED WITH THE NAM. THE NAM IS ALSO OK OUT WEST THROUGH ABOUT 60
HRS...THEN WILL TREND TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.500MB...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW CENTER OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR THIS MORNING LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS. THE LONG
WAVE OVER EASTERN RUSSIA DIGS OVER WESTERN AK MON AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND SETS UP A BROAD W-SW FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. THE LONG WAVE MOVES TO THE SE MAINLAND/EASTERN GULF AROUND
140W WED AFTERNOON WITH A LOW WEST OF YAKUTAT. ON THE
BACKSIDE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
MAINLAND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A FAIRLY
COMPACT LOW CENTER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
TYPHOON...MOVES TO THE FAR WEST ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WED AFTERNOON.

.SURFACE...
A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED TO THE
EASTERN MAINLAND THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN...AND A LITTLE SNOW AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN REPLACED BY
SHOWERS WITH A TROUGH TO ITS WEST. FURTHER WEST...A FRONTAL TROUGH
APPROACHING SW ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES INTO EASTERN BRISTOL BAY
MON EVENING THEN INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
TUE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPPER SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MON. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND STEADY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE AS A WEATHER FRONT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WED AS
DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE
ONSET OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHING THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS IT MOVES TO EASTERN BRISTOL BAY MON
NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST MON NIGHT AND TUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA. FOG WITH LOW
STRATUS LIKELY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS/NORTHERN AK PEN MON NIGHT AND TUE
WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS INLAND.

.BERING SEA...ALEUTIANS...A WEAK RIDGE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS DRY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH BERING AS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD TYPHOON. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SPREADS RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC AUG 11