Small Craft Advisory 554, NWS Anchorage, AK

761 
FZAK51 PAFC 082327
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-091500-
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO OVER COOK INLET AND SHELIKOF STRAIT TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT THEN MOVES TO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-091500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ121-091500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-091500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 10. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-091500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2
FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-091500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-091500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-091500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-091500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-091500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 8 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...500 MB HT AND MSLP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ARE
REASONABLE AS WELL AS FORECAST TREND THROUGH WED AFTERNOON FOR MUCH
OF THE MAINLAND AND EASTERN BERING SEA. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING SOME
WITH THE REMNANTS OF A TYPHOON HEADING TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WED. THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH THE NAM AS THE OUTLIER. GRIDS IN THE EAST DOMAIN WILL BE
FRESHENED WITH THE NAM. THE NAM IS ALSO OK OUT WEST THROUGH ABOUT 60
HRS...THEN WILL TREND TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.500MB...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW CENTER OVER THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR THIS MORNING LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS. THE LONG
WAVE OVER EASTERN RUSSIA DIGS OVER WESTERN AK MON AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND SETS UP A BROAD W-SW FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. THE LONG WAVE MOVES TO THE SE MAINLAND/EASTERN GULF AROUND
140W WED AFTERNOON WITH A LOW WEST OF YAKUTAT. ON THE
BACKSIDE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
MAINLAND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A FAIRLY
COMPACT LOW CENTER...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
TYPHOON...MOVES TO THE FAR WEST ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WED AFTERNOON.

.SURFACE...
A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED TO THE
EASTERN MAINLAND THIS MORNING. STEADY RAIN...AND A LITTLE SNOW AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN REPLACED BY
SHOWERS WITH A TROUGH TO ITS WEST. FURTHER WEST...A FRONTAL TROUGH
APPROACHING SW ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES INTO EASTERN BRISTOL BAY
MON EVENING THEN INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
TUE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPPER SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MON. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND STEADY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE AS A WEATHER FRONT MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WED AS
DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE
ONSET OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHING THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS IT MOVES TO EASTERN BRISTOL BAY MON
NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST MON NIGHT AND TUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA. FOG WITH LOW
STRATUS LIKELY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS/NORTHERN AK PEN MON NIGHT AND TUE
WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS INLAND.

.BERING SEA...ALEUTIANS...A WEAK RIDGE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS DRY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH BERING AS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD TYPHOON. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SPREADS RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC AUG 11