Small Craft Advisory 548, NWS Anchorage, AK

267 
FZAK51 PAFC 061448 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
650 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...CORRECTED ZONE 125...

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-070300-
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF SAT MORNING AND WEAKEN 
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON SUN. 
$$

PKZ120-070300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT NORTH OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. ALONG THE COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE
GUSTS TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT W 25 KT WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. ALONG
THE COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-070300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-070300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-070300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-070300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-070300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
$$

PKZ138-070300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ140-070300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT BUILDING TO 8
FT IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-070300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 
$$

390 
FZAK51 PAFC 062313
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-071500-
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE EASTERN
GULF ON SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT 
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-071500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE
GUSTS TO 35 KT DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND
25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-071500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-071500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR
HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE...GUSTS TO 35 KT DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-071500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-071500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-071500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-071500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-071500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-071500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT GUSTING TO 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
135 PM AKDT FRI AUG 5 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BERING STRAIT/FAR NORTHERN BERING SEA.
THERE ARE ACTUALLY TWO LOW CENTERS DUMB-BELLING AROUND WITH ONE
OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA MOVING NORTHWARD AND ANOTHER DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SIBERIA INTO THE NORTHERN BERING. BOTTOM LINE
IS THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO BRING COOL AND WET CONDITIONS TO MUCH
OF MAINLAND ALASKA.

A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS MORNING...WITH
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HAS CREATED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (AS OBSERVED IN AREA SOUNDINGS
THIS MORNING) TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM THE WESTERN GULF
WESTWARD TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA.
FREEZING LEVELS HAVE FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
THE LOWEST OBSERVED LEVEL AROUND 2500 FEET IN BETHEL AT 12Z THIS
MORNING. THIS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES...
PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WITH FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY
AVERAGING 6 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

IF YOU FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC
IT CURVES BACK NORTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND BECOMES
A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT IS DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING
WITH IT MUCH WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR. THE RESULT OF THIS IS EVIDENT
IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS STRATUS SLOWLY SPREADING
BACK NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING AND
TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

THE LOW DROPPING OUT OB SIBERIA IS ALREADY SPREADING CLOUDS AND
RAIN TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA...SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
QUICKLY HEAD DOWNHILL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS/ECMWF/UKMET HAVE ALL TRENDED TOWARD A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT CROSSES SOUTHWEST
ALASKA SATURDAY AND HEAD INTO INTERIOR ALASKA SUNDAY. THIS WILL
HAVE MINOR AFFECTS ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. DIFFERENCES ARE ALSO NOTED AT THE SURFACE
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH OF SEWARD
SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH PREFER NAM IN OTHER PLACES DUE TO ITS
SUPERIOR RESOLUTION AND HANDLING OF TERRAIN PLAN TO TREND TOWARD
THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION WITH THIS LOW. MINOR DIFFERENCES
ALSO EXIST WITH TRACK OF NEXT SURFACE LOW DROPPING OUT OF SIBERIA
ON SUNDAY. PLAN TO USE AN AVERAGE POSITION FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE SOUTH END OF THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE WILL
SPEED RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT CAUSING THE TROUGH
TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS MEANS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
TROUGH WILL HANG UP OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE MOUNTAINS IN PARTICULAR WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THINGS START TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE MAT-SU TO ANCHORAGE
AND THE KENAI PENINSULA WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL MAKE A BRIEF
APPEARANCE.

CONDITIONS WILL HEAD DOWNHILL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY OVER THESE
SAME AREAS AS NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVE IN. AS WITH THE PAST COUPLE EVENTS THE DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG
AND MOISTURE ABUNDANT. SO ONCE AGAIN EXPECT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH A DEEP LAYER OF SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A
VORT-MAX PROGGED TO TRACK RIGHT UP THE INLET AND THEN OVER THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ALONG THE WEST
SIDE OF THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
STREAMS IN THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY (WHERE A FLOOD ADVISORY IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT) TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON RIVERS AND STREAMS FURTHER EAST IN THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY FOR POTENTIAL SWELLING OF WATER LEVELS TO BANK FULL. ALL OF
THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT. SIMILAR TO TODAY...CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
AS EVERYTHING EXITS TO THE NORTH AN EAST. CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER AND WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST
A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

THIS WHOLE SCENARIO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PLAY OUT ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY
AS ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. AT THIS POINT IN TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE WEAKER SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN AND CLOUDS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE AT
A DECENT CLIP SO DON'T EXPECT STEADY RAIN TO LAST MORE THAN 12 HOURS.
ANOTHER SHORT BREAK CAN BE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE NEXT IN WHAT IS TURNING OUT TO BE A LONG LINE OF SYSTEMS
MOVES IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH A RE-SUPPLY OF COLD
AIR ALOFT WITH EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS SURFACE TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON HIGHS) WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL REMAIN FOCUSED FROM THE
NORTHERN BERING TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH SYSTEMS JUST CLIPPING THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SO STRATUS AND FOG WILL PERSIST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PATTERN CHANGE
WILL OCCUR IN THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GFS BOTH DEPICT
ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LOW SPLITTING AND MOVING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS
HELPING TO ELONGATE INTO AN EAST-WEST TROUGH AT THE HIGHER LATITUDES.
THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA MID WEEK
AND HEAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE MAINLAND AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK.
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THIS GENERAL SCENARIO. IF THE PATTERN DOES EVOLVE
THIS WAY EXPECT THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND TO FINALLY SEE A FEW DAYS IN
A ROW OF DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN
BERING SEA WOULD ALSO BECOME MORE ACTIVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE LATE NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY 145.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB AUG 11