Small Craft Advisory 539, NWS Anchorage, AK

138 
FZAK51 PAFC 041155
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050300-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF THU EVENING AND INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLE LATE FRI NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-050300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE
COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-050300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ125-050300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF EASTERN BAYS AND PASSES
IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-050300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-050300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. WINDS BECOMING W 20 KT FROM THE BARREN
ISLANDS WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 4 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
$$

PKZ132-050300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-050300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ140-050300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING
TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ141-050300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH THEY BREAK DOWN IN THE WEST

WITH A BERING SEA LOW ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION IN
THE WEST IS PREFERRED OVER THE EC SOLUTION DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF MODEL IS SHOWING A STRONGER LOW AND IF THE COOLING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT IS THE REASON FOR THIS IT MIGHT BE CLOSER TO
WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THEREFORE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE WATCHED AS
IT DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA FRIDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL WET AUGUST
PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A LARGE RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA EXTENDING INTO THE YUKON TERRITORIES WITH A TWO CENTERED LOW
EXTENDING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS IS THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE WEAKER
LOW IS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.
THE LOW CENTERED IN THE CHUKCHI IS THE MAIN LOW AND IS DIGGING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THIS COMBINATION IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD RAIN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA HAD CAUSED STREAM AND RIVER RISES ENOUGH
FOR THERE TO BE FLOOD ADVISORIES AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS WELL
AS THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY RIVERS. SINCE THE RAIN WILL ONLY SEE A
BRIEF RESPITE OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN
TOMORROW THE FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA AND SATURDAY FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA
VALLEY.
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA WILL SEE RAINFALL TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
TOMORROW. STRATUS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE KEEPS ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION.
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
SEE STRATUS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
WARM AIR ALOFT IS CREATING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO KEEPING
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AROUND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS DUG INTO THE
BERING SEA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND OR SHOWERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY 125 131 135 145.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 129 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AUG 11