Gale Warning 547, NWS Anchorage, AK

629 
FZAK52 PAFC 042327
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051500-
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 984 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTH OF NOME WILL MOVE TO 100 NM WEST OF KOTZEBUE
AND WEAKEN TO 1000 MB FRI AFTERNOON. A 999 MB LOW 235 NM WEST OF ST
MATTHEW ISLAND THU NIGHT WILL MOVE NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND AT 995 MB
FRI EVENING AND THEN MOVE NEAR BETHEL AT 1004 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-051500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-051500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-051500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-051500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-051500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-051500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-051500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-051500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-051500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-051500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-051500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...W 25 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-051500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH THEY BREAK DOWN IN THE WEST

WITH A BERING SEA LOW ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION IN
THE WEST IS PREFERRED OVER THE EC SOLUTION DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF MODEL IS SHOWING A STRONGER LOW AND IF THE COOLING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT IS THE REASON FOR THIS IT MIGHT BE CLOSER TO
WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THEREFORE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE WATCHED AS
IT DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA FRIDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL WET AUGUST
PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A LARGE RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA EXTENDING INTO THE YUKON TERRITORIES WITH A TWO CENTERED LOW
EXTENDING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS IS THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE WEAKER
LOW IS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.
THE LOW CENTERED IN THE CHUKCHI IS THE MAIN LOW AND IS DIGGING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THIS COMBINATION IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD RAIN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA HAD CAUSED STREAM AND RIVER RISES ENOUGH
FOR THERE TO BE FLOOD ADVISORIES AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS WELL
AS THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY RIVERS. SINCE THE RAIN WILL ONLY SEE A
BRIEF RESPITE OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN
TOMORROW THE FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY FOR THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA AND SATURDAY FOR THE WESTERN SUSITNA
VALLEY.
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA WILL SEE RAINFALL TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
TOMORROW. STRATUS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE KEEPS ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION.
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
SEE STRATUS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
WARM AIR ALOFT IS CREATING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO KEEPING
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AROUND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS DUG INTO THE
BERING SEA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND OR SHOWERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY 125 131 135 145.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 129 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AUG 11