Small Craft Advisory 536, NWS Anchorage, AK

282 
FZAK52 PAFC 030042 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
442 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

CORRECTED ZONE 179

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-031500-
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 992 MB LOW 50 NM WEST OF KODIAK CITY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH WED MORNING THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES TO THE KENAI PENINSULA
THU MORNING. A 987 MB SIBERIAN LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO 979 MB AS IT
MOVES TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WED AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE
TO 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF NOME THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-031500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-031500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-031500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-031500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-031500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-031500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-031500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-031500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-031500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-031500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-031500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-031500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
442 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

359 
FZAK52 PAFC 031127
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-040300-
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 995 MB LOW 50 NM WEST OF KODIAK CITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GULF BY WED AFTERNOON. A 980 MB LOW 115 NM WEST OF SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO 85 NM EAST OF SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND AT SAME STRENGTH LATE WED NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN DRIFT
NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN TO 990 MB NEAR THE BERING STRAIT LATE THU NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-040300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-040300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-040300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-040300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-040300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-040300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-040300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-040300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-040300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-040300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-040300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-040300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A
LARGE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
STATE...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS LOCATED OVER WESTERN ALASKA. A
SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH JUST TO THE
WEST. CYCLONIC ROTATION IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR
COLD BAY INDICATING FORMATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THERE IS A
BROAD AND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE AND LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND LOW (AS INDICATED BY AREA SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY)
WHICH IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY IN PLACES...FROM
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA.

FALLING PRESSURE WITH DEEPENING LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND COMBINED
WITH STATIONARY SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST IS PRODUCING
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM
CORDOVA TO PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA. WINDS ARE LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH AS WELL HELPING TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...A DEVELOPING LOW OVER SIBERIA IS POISED TO DROP
INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTED BY A 100 KT JET.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING OF CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH HANDLING OF SIBERIAN LOW
AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS IS MANIFESTED BY LARGER
DIFFERENCES IN NEXT ARCTIC LOW DROPPING DOWN INTO THE BERING AND
DUMB-BELLING AROUND THE OTHER LOW LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION SO HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD GFS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THIS. IF ECMWF/GFS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW ON THE 00Z RUN WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER
LARGER CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A DIFFERENT STORM TRACK
BEYOND FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TOWARD THE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS
AND MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPING AFFECT ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THERE
IS SO MUCH MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT STILL
EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUD BASE RAIN TO AFFECT THESE AREAS. COASTAL AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY
OVER THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
DOES HAVE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SOME MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG
SMALL STREAMS...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOSELY AND CONSIDER ISSUING A SMALL STREAM
FLOOD ADVISORY.

HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO BE A MAJOR IMPACT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. THE
FRONT WHICH HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FURTHER. THE
COMBINED AFFECTS OF THE GRADIENT WIND WITH  STRONG GEOSTROPHIC WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY
AND TURNAGAIN ARM RESULTING IN DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SEWARD HIGHWAY. DO NOT EXPECT THESE WINDS TO MAKE
IT INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF E-W ORIENTED
GAPS IN THE MOUNTAINS) DUE TO A STRENGTHENING NORTH/SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE SUSITNA VALLEY DOWN TO SHELIKOF STRAIT...WHICH
WILL HELP BEND THE WINDS SOUTHWARD. PALMER...ON THE OTHER HAND WILL
BE EXPOSED TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING OUT OF THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS MARINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS A
BARRIER JET FORMS. PLAN TO UP THESE TO STORM FORCE WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE RIGHT NEAR CORDOVA ON WEDNESDAY
SO THEY WILL BE RIGHT ON THE BORDER OF REACHING HIGH WINDS. FOR NOW
PLAN TO MAX THEM OUT AT 70 MPH GUSTS.

THINGS WILL START TO WINDS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
DISSIPATE AND THE UPPER LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EASTERN GULF.
HOWEVER...DON'T EXPECT MUCH OF A BREAK BEFORE THE SYSTEM DROPPING
OUT OF SIBERIA BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY...LIKELY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...EASTERN SECTIONS
OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STEADY
RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY
DRIFTS UP SHELIKOF STRAIT. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL EASTWARD
AND WEAKEN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAS ACTUALLY
CREATED A BREAK IN CLOUDS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN AS THE LOW OVER
SIBERIA DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN BERING WEDNESDAY CAUSING A FRONT
TO SPEED TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SO AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN WET
WEATHER RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND PUSH INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BROAD WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE BERING BEHIND THIS LOW AND FRONT
AS EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD FROM SIBERIA. YET ANOTHER LOW
WILL THEN DROP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN BERING ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRESENCE OF AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW PERSISTING ACROSS WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN
ALASKA AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. THERE
IS MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORT-WAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR A SHOT
OF RAIN EVERY COUPLE DAYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...SO
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL AND CLOUDY SIDE. ESPECIALLY COOL
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THE COLDER AIR
BEING PULLED DOWN FROM SIBERIA SITS OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120 125.
         GALE WARNING 128 129 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB AUG 11