Gale Warning 544, NWS Anchorage, AK

004 
FZAK51 PAFC 031333 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
533 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

CORRECTED ZONE 130

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-040300-
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 995 MB LOW 50 NM WEST OF KODIAK CITY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 1004 MB
65 NM SOUTHEAST OF HOMER LATE WED NIGHT AND DISSIPATE THU MORNING. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE BERING SEA AND INTO THE WESTERN
GULF THU EVENING.

$$

PKZ120-040300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-040300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-040300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-040300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-040300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE
WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT...EXCEPT 5 FT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.  
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
$$

PKZ132-040300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
$$

PKZ138-040300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
$$

PKZ140-040300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT S 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-040300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

544 
FZAK51 PAFC 032305
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-041500-
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 998 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL DISSIPATE 50 NM WEST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND THU MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF THU EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FRI AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-041500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT E 35 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-041500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-041500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-041500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-041500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 30 KT
DIMINISHING TO SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-041500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-041500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
4 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-041500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-041500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 3 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

138 
FZAK51 PAFC 041155
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050300-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF THU EVENING AND INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLE LATE FRI NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-050300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE
COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-050300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ125-050300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF EASTERN BAYS AND PASSES
IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-050300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-050300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. WINDS BECOMING W 20 KT FROM THE BARREN
ISLANDS WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 4 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
$$

PKZ132-050300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-050300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ140-050300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING
TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ141-050300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 4 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A
LARGE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
STATE...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS LOCATED OVER WESTERN ALASKA. A
SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH JUST TO THE
WEST. CYCLONIC ROTATION IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR
COLD BAY INDICATING FORMATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THERE IS A
BROAD AND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE AND LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND LOW (AS INDICATED BY AREA SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY)
WHICH IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY IN PLACES...FROM
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA.

FALLING PRESSURE WITH DEEPENING LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND COMBINED
WITH STATIONARY SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST IS PRODUCING
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM
CORDOVA TO PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA. WINDS ARE LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH AS WELL HELPING TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...A DEVELOPING LOW OVER SIBERIA IS POISED TO DROP
INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTED BY A 100 KT JET.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING OF CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH HANDLING OF SIBERIAN LOW
AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS IS MANIFESTED BY LARGER
DIFFERENCES IN NEXT ARCTIC LOW DROPPING DOWN INTO THE BERING AND
DUMB-BELLING AROUND THE OTHER LOW LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION SO HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD GFS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THIS. IF ECMWF/GFS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW ON THE 00Z RUN WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER
LARGER CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A DIFFERENT STORM TRACK
BEYOND FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TOWARD THE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS
AND MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE TYPICAL
DOWNSLOPING AFFECT ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THERE
IS SO MUCH MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT STILL
EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUD BASE RAIN TO AFFECT THESE AREAS. COASTAL AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY
OVER THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
DOES HAVE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SOME MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG
SMALL STREAMS...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOSELY AND CONSIDER ISSUING A SMALL STREAM
FLOOD ADVISORY.

HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO BE A MAJOR IMPACT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. THE
FRONT WHICH HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FURTHER. THE
COMBINED AFFECTS OF THE GRADIENT WIND WITH  STRONG GEOSTROPHIC WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY
AND TURNAGAIN ARM RESULTING IN DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SEWARD HIGHWAY. DO NOT EXPECT THESE WINDS TO MAKE
IT INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF E-W ORIENTED
GAPS IN THE MOUNTAINS) DUE TO A STRENGTHENING NORTH/SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE SUSITNA VALLEY DOWN TO SHELIKOF STRAIT...WHICH
WILL HELP BEND THE WINDS SOUTHWARD. PALMER...ON THE OTHER HAND WILL
BE EXPOSED TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING OUT OF THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS MARINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS A
BARRIER JET FORMS. PLAN TO UP THESE TO STORM FORCE WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE RIGHT NEAR CORDOVA ON WEDNESDAY
SO THEY WILL BE RIGHT ON THE BORDER OF REACHING HIGH WINDS. FOR NOW
PLAN TO MAX THEM OUT AT 70 MPH GUSTS.

THINGS WILL START TO WINDS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
DISSIPATE AND THE UPPER LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EASTERN GULF.
HOWEVER...DON'T EXPECT MUCH OF A BREAK BEFORE THE SYSTEM DROPPING
OUT OF SIBERIA BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY...LIKELY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...EASTERN SECTIONS
OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STEADY
RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY
DRIFTS UP SHELIKOF STRAIT. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL EASTWARD
AND WEAKEN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM HAS ACTUALLY
CREATED A BREAK IN CLOUDS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN AS THE LOW OVER
SIBERIA DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN BERING WEDNESDAY CAUSING A FRONT
TO SPEED TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SO AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN WET
WEATHER RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND PUSH INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BROAD WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE BERING BEHIND THIS LOW AND FRONT
AS EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD FROM SIBERIA. YET ANOTHER LOW
WILL THEN DROP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN BERING ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRESENCE OF AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW PERSISTING ACROSS WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN
ALASKA AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. THERE
IS MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORT-WAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR A SHOT
OF RAIN EVERY COUPLE DAYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...SO
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL AND CLOUDY SIDE. ESPECIALLY COOL
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THE COLDER AIR
BEING PULLED DOWN FROM SIBERIA SITS OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120 125.
         GALE WARNING 128 129 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB AUG 11