Small Craft Advisory 532, NWS Anchorage, AK

220 
FZAK51 PAFC 011543 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
740 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

UPDATED ZONES 129 AND 130

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-020300-
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH
MON NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. A 993 MB LOW WILL FORM 115 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHIGNIK TUE MORNING AND STRENGTHEN TO 987 MB 65 NM NORTHWEST OF
KODIAK CITY TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-020300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
600 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE 
ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 30 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 35 KT ALONG THE COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-020300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-020300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
600 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-020300-
PASSAGE CANAL
740 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-020300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
740 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT SW 15 KT SE OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-020300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-020300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-020300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
600 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT...INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON 
S OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-020300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

763 
FZAK51 PAFC 012307
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021500-
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 994 MB LOW 35 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK TUE MORNING WILL MOVE TO 60
NM NORTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN DRIFT TO
NEAR 50 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY LATE WED AFTERNOON AT 1000 MB. 

$$

PKZ120-021500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 15 KT W OF CAPE CLEARE. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT W OF CAPE CLEARE. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-021500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-021500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-021500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-021500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-021500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-021500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-021500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-021500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE STATE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED BY A LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN. WHILE NUMEROUS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND, ALL MODELS SHOW TWO
LARGER LOWS ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE FIRST WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS PHASES WITH A STRONG TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE
ARCTIC LOW. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
WED MORNING IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PINWHEELING
THROUGH THE PATTERN. WHILE ALL MODELS ARE IN THE SAME BALLPARK THE
NAM WAS CHOSEN AS THE MODEL OF THE DAY DUE TO SUPERIOR INITIALIZATION
OF THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES A MEAN
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA CONNECTED TO A PARENT LOW IN THE ARCTIC
OCEAN. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD WEST/SOUTHWEST
FLOW HAVE BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM BRISTOL BAY IS ONCE
AGAIN FLOODING COOK INLET WITH MOISTURE AS A LARGER SHIELD OF RAIN IS
NOW TAKING SHAPE AND MOVING TOWARD ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU VALLEY. A
STALLED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS CONTINUING TO BRING
WIDESPREAD FOG ONSHORE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. FURTHER WEST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS
GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS BUT THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE AREA SEEMS TO BE
MIXING THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVE THE WIDESPREAD FOGGY
CONDITIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE BRISTOL BAY AREA HAS MOVED IN AND BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD ATMOSPHERIC LIFT. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC AND WEAK WAVES
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN. BEGINNING THIS EVENING THE LOW
CURRENTLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
ITS ENERGY INTO THE WESTERN GULF. AS THIS HAPPENS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A DOWNSLOPE
HOLE TO OPEN UP IN THE USUAL AREAS FROM THE WESTERN KENAI UP TO
ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A POTENT BARRIER JET
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND A STRONG TURNAGAIN ARM WIND WILL BOTH
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE DEEPENING LOW ENCOUNTERS PERSISTENT HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS PATTERN SHOULD HOLD THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND MUCH HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON EAST FACING SLOPES. IN
FACT...RELATIVELY HIGH AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
UNSEASONABLY STRONG WINDS AND UPWARD MOTION COULD SUPPORT 5 TO 10
INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN THIS WEEK OVER THE WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND MOUNTAINS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
ONSHORE FLOW...FOG...AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL
MEAN TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE YUKON DELTA AND WESTERN
BRISTOL BAY SHOULD CATCH A BREAK FROM THE RAIN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE CLOSER TO THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES STEADY
RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS WESTERN GULF LOW SPINS UP. NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO A SHOWERY PATTERN.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN BERING WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. SECONDARY LOW THAT DROPS OUT OF SIBERIA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS
TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN BERING BEFORE DISSIPATING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERN BERING AND MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE COMING WEEK AS MOST OF THE ACTION STAYS TO
THE EAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH MEAN AXIS GENERALLY OVER THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS MEANS GENERALLY CLOUDY
AND WET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN MOST AREAS FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10
DAYS...MAKING FOR A RATHER GLOOMY START TO AUGUST FOR MAINLAND
ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DIXON AUG 11