Gale Warning 538, NWS Anchorage, AK

707 
FZAK51 PAFC 011402 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
600 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

UPDATED 120 125 140

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-020300-
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH
MON NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. A 993 MB LOW WILL FORM 115 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHIGNIK TUE MORNING AND STRENGTHEN TO 987 MB 65 NM NORTHWEST OF
KODIAK CITY TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-020300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
600 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE 
ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 30 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 35 KT ALONG THE COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-020300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-020300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
600 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-020300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-020300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-020300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-020300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-020300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
600 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT...INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON S OF
KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-020300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

220 
FZAK51 PAFC 011543 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
740 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

UPDATED ZONES 129 AND 130

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-020300-
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH
MON NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. A 993 MB LOW WILL FORM 115 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHIGNIK TUE MORNING AND STRENGTHEN TO 987 MB 65 NM NORTHWEST OF
KODIAK CITY TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-020300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
600 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE 
ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 30 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 35 KT ALONG THE COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-020300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-020300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
600 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-020300-
PASSAGE CANAL
740 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-020300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
740 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT SW 15 KT SE OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-020300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-020300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-020300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
600 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT...INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON 
S OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-020300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

763 
FZAK51 PAFC 012307
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021500-
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 994 MB LOW 35 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK TUE MORNING WILL MOVE TO 60
NM NORTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN DRIFT TO
NEAR 50 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY LATE WED AFTERNOON AT 1000 MB. 

$$

PKZ120-021500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 15 KT W OF CAPE CLEARE. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT W OF CAPE CLEARE. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-021500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-021500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-021500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-021500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-021500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-021500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-021500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-021500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

807 
FZAK51 PAFC 020604 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1000 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

UPDATED 125 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021500-
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 994 MB LOW 35 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK TUE MORNING WILL MOVE TO 60
NM NORTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN DRIFT TO
NEAR 50 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY LATE WED AFTERNOON AT 1000 MB. 

$$

PKZ120-021500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 15 KT W OF CAPE CLEARE. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT W OF CAPE CLEARE. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-021500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-021500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
1000 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-021500-
PASSAGE CANAL
1000 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-021500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-021500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-021500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-021500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-021500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 1 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

698 
FZAK51 PAFC 021153
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-030300-
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 995 MB LOW WILL FORM 55 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK TUE MORNING AND
MOVE TO 65 NM WEST OF KODIAK CITY LATE TUE NIGHT AT 992 MB. THIS LOW
WILL THEN DRIFT TO 90 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY LATE WED NIGHT AT
1004 MB.

$$

PKZ120-030300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. ALONG THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-030300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-030300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-030300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-030300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-030300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-030300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-030300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-030300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

030 
FZAK51 PAFC 022308
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-031500-
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 992 MB LOW 50 NM WEST OF KODIAK CITY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH WED MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 1005 MB AS IT 
MOVES TO 60 NM SOUTHEAST OF HOMER WED NIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA THU MORNING. 

$$

PKZ120-031500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT BY
AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE
WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-031500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-031500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-031500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-031500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-031500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-031500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-031500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-031500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

CORRECTED TYPO

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE
SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE KEEPS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE WITH
TWO LARGER SYSTEMS ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE FIRST WORKING
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND ANOTHER DROPPING INTO BERING SEA FROM THE
CHUKCHI PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY. THE LATTER LOOKS TO BECOME A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE YUKON DELTA BY LATE WEEK. THE NAM AND GFS ARE
SIMILAR BUT BELIEVE THE 12Z NAM/EC WILL HANDLE THE GULF FEATURES
BETTER.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A LARGE MEAN TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE
POLAR VORTEX. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN ALASKA FOR THE COMING DAYS. THE LEADING
WAVE IS MOVING UP INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TODAY BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING
INTO KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WHICH WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. OUT IN THE
PACIFIC...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LIES BETWEEN A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OFF WEST OF THE ALEUTIANS AND A RIDGE IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. THE
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND ENTER THE CIRCULATION
OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND SWING INTO THE GULF
TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...
MANY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND LARGE TROUGH IN THE BERING
WITH AN ANCHOR POLAR LOW. ONE MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
THIS AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER...A BIT STRONGER WITH VERY GOOD UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW. ALL THIS MEANS FOR A VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN. SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OFF AND ON OVER MOST OF
THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE
TOMORROW. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL NOT ESCAPE PRECIP THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THE WAVE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL BRING A STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE EASTERN GULF WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS IN THE BERING. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
OVER THE AREA. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN GULF
INTO A 998 MB BY TUESDAY...FLOW WILL INCREASE AT THE SURFACE AS WELL.
AN ENHANCED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WHERE A BARRIER JET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
DUE TO THE FLOW AROUND THE LOW AND INCREASED UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. CONTINUED WESTERLY MOIST
FLOW WITH THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING OVER BRISTOL BAY. SOME DECENT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE SURFACE LOW FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SOME GOOD SURFACE WINDS ALSO THAT WILL
SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN BERING BEHIND THIS LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST. COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THOUGH.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE LOW RE-DEVELOPS OVER KODIAK WITH RAIN AND
SHOWERS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND WEST TO DILLINGHAM TUESDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO MOVE INTO
THE NUNIVAK ISLAND AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE WARM FRONT WITH
GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO PUSH INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BERING AND ALEUTIAN...
AN UPPER CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO SWING INTO THE BIG
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL INCREASE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE BRISTOL BAY LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE MODERATE. THIS
WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY AS THE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF
TUESDAY. THE NEXT LOW DROPPING INTO THE BERING WEDNESDAY WILL
INCREASE THE WESTERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
BERING. MEANWHILE...STRATUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE BERING AFTER THE KUSKOKWIM LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
START TO SEE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES STARTING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVER THE STATE. THE LARGE POLAR SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS SWINGING
INTO THE BERING STRAIT IS HANDLED WELL. HOWEVER...THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT PRECEDED IT THROUGH THE AKPEN AND GULF WAS WELL OUT OF
PHASE BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS. BELIEVE IN MORE OF THE GFS SOLUTION
SINCE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST WILL HAMPER ANY PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE
ACROSS THE GULF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME DIFFERENCE ALSO ON HOW
THE POLAR LOW AND PRECEDING SHORT WAVE SETTLER INTO THE BERING. THE
GFS DIGS A BIT DEEPER THAN THE EC. THE RESULT IS THE FORECAST WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE SINCE THE EXACT SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN SWAYING BACK
AND FORTH. ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT...THE WEATHER WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL AND MOSTLY WET.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN JUL 11