Small Craft Advisory 527, NWS Anchorage, AK

095 
FZAK51 PAFC 311927 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1125 AM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

UPDATED ZONE 120 125 129 132 138 AND 140

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010300-
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH
MON AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-010300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
1125 AM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. ALONG THE COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE
WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. ALONG THE COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE
WIND 20 KT.  SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. ALONG THE COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE
WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-010300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-010300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
1125 AM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-010300-
PASSAGE CANAL
1125 AM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-010300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-010300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
1125 AM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-010300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
1125 AM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-010300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
1125 AM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-010300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 312309
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011500-
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH
MON AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN IN PLACE THROUGH TUE. A 992 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 100 NM
SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-011500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 40 KT EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-011500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-011500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-011500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-011500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-011500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-011500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-011500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-011500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SAT JUL 30 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY.  ALL
MODELS DIG A STRONG UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN ARCTIC TO
BRISTOL BAY.  THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY.  THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  A SECOND SHORT
WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST MONDAY AND REACH
COOK INLET TUESDAY NIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE FROM
THE GULF OF ANADYR TONIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER WESTERN ALASKA
BY MONDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE IS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER WESTERN
ALASKA FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN.  AS THIS TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA FROM BRISTOL BAY
TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.  THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES IS SPREADING
SHOWERS OVER COOK INLET AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT AND OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN SUNDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD
FROM THE SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SUNDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...EXPECT A BREAK IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES WITH SHOWERS
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST TONIGHT.  SHOWERS AND RAIN WILL
INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT WAVE MONDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY EAST
OF 170W MONDAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
EXPECT CONTINUED COOL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE.  RAIN AND WINDY WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE
NORTHERN BERING AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
LOW MOVES THROUGH THIS AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RHH JUL 11