Small Craft Advisory 525, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SAT JUL 30 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY.  ALL
MODELS DIG A STRONG UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN ARCTIC TO
BRISTOL BAY.  THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH
TUESDAY.  THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  A SECOND SHORT
WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST MONDAY AND REACH
COOK INLET TUESDAY NIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE FROM
THE GULF OF ANADYR TONIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER WESTERN ALASKA
BY MONDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE IS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER WESTERN
ALASKA FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN.  AS THIS TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA FROM BRISTOL BAY
TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.  THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES IS SPREADING
SHOWERS OVER COOK INLET AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT AND OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN SUNDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...EXPECT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD
FROM THE SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SUNDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...EXPECT A BREAK IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES WITH SHOWERS
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST TONIGHT.  SHOWERS AND RAIN WILL
INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT WAVE MONDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY EAST
OF 170W MONDAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
EXPECT CONTINUED COOL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE.  RAIN AND WINDY WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE
NORTHERN BERING AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
LOW MOVES THROUGH THIS AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RHH JUL 11