Small Craft Advisory 515, NWS Anchorage, AK

596 
FZAK52 PAFC 280203 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
605 PM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

UPDATED ZONES 175 AND 176 FOR DENSE FOG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-281045-
231 PM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ALEUTIANS
THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN BERING SEA.

$$

PKZ150-281045-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
231 PM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-281045-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
231 PM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-281045-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
231 PM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-281045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
231 PM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-281045-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
231 PM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NW 15 KT S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-281045-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
231 PM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF RAIN
AND FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-281045-
UNALASKA BAY
231 PM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN ON THU.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-281045-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
231 PM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT BERING SIDE. 
SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-281045-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
605 PM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT S 10 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 7 FT. 
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-281045-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
605 PM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-281045-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
231 PM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ179-281045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
231 PM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
535 AM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD TROUGH ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE AOR...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. ONE SUCH WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN
KENAI PENINSULA DRIFTING NORTH AND WEAKENING. RADAR DEPICTS A NEARLY
STATIONARY SWATH OF STEADY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN COOK INLET ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS INCHING TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER-LOW BRUSHING SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND IS ROTATING
EAST AND FILLING. OUT WEST...AN ELONGATED TROUGH IS DRAPED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ACCEPTABLY CAPTURE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES AND HAVE
REASONABLE AGREEMENT. IN THE EAST...MODELS SHOW THE LOW NEAR KODIAK
QUICKLY MOVING EAST AND FILLING ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER UPPER-LOW
HOT ON IT'S HEELS EJECTING FROM BRISTOL BAY INTO THE WESTERN GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS IS SLOWEST TO DRAG THIS NEXT LOW EAST...STILL
SHOWING IT AROUND 140W SATURDAY MORNING. TENDED TO PREFER THE QUICKER
NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS PER CONTINUITY. OUT WEST...MODELS SHOW WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
UPPER-LOW NEAR KODIAK QUICKLY MOVES EAST AND SOUTH OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND TONIGHT. STEADY RAIN OVER COASTAL AREAS/PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THOSE AREAS TODAY BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS
TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT APPEARS NEUTRAL/WEAK AND LACKING IN
SUBSTANTIAL FORCING TO STEER THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL. LOOK FOR SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW. THERMAL TROUGH PROXIMITY TO
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE IN
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. SHOWERS BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR A FEW MORE SUNNY BREAKS IN THE VALLEYS.

SOUTHWEST...
WEAK UPPER-LOW FORMS OFF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST THIS EVENING AND
MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY ON THURSDAY. IN THE INTERIM...UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AND PRESENCE OF WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TO SQUEEZE OUT
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY/DELTA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
TROUGH AXIS MOVES LITTLE THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN. SUBSIDENCE
UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO YIELD TYPICAL AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE LONG-WAVE
EVOLUTION...WITH A TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP A CLOUDY AND WET REGIME
IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS...CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER BENIGN WITH WEAK
FEATURES ROTATING THROUGH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JAM JUL 11