Small Craft Advisory 514, NWS Anchorage, AK

851 
FZAK52 PAFC 271141
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-280300-
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIAN
CHAIN WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING THROUGH FRI.

$$

PKZ150-280300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-280300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-280300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-280300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-280300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-280300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-280300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-280300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-280300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-280300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-280300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-280300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED JUL 27 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKDT TUE JUL 26 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED FROM THE
EASTERN BERING SEA AND MAINLAND ALASKA. ONE UPPER LOW IS EXITING
VIA THE NORTHEAST GULF WHILE ANOTHER SITTING OVER THE EASTERN
BERING IS TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF. RAIN EXTENDS ALONG
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND IS HEADED UP INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT-WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IS BRINGING RAIN
TO KODIAK ISLAND. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WEAK IMPULSES
ARE HELPING TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS...BUT THE LARGER IMPACT IS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH EASTERN BERING SYSTEM ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE BIGGER CHALLENGE IS THE WEAK IMPULSES
TRAVERSING ELSEWHERE AROUND THE TROUGH AND DETERMINING WHETHER ANY
OF THESE ARE STRONG ENOUGH OR ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE THAN
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE ANSWER AT THE MOMENT IS NO. THE
NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN TRACKING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
INTO THE YUKON AND THEN BACK WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN COPPER
BASIN...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. FOR NOW...WITH
WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST WHICH DOWNPLAYS SHOWERS AND CONFINES THEM TO MAINLY ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE TRACK OF THE BERING LOW INTO THE GULF
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. THEREFORE...DO EXPECT RAIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
KENAI PENINSULA AND IMMEDIATE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL THEN QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL EXPECT CLOUDS TO
HANG IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH JUST OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF SUN.
THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND...BUT THESE WILL MAINLY STAY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SO MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOL.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE LOW OVER THE BERING WILL CROSS BRISTOL BAY
TONIGHT. RAIN COMBINED WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER JUST
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TO KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.
CONDITIONS WILL SHOW MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PREDOMINANTLY OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AFTER THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING EXITS
TONIGHT ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DROP DOWN FROM THE
ARCTIC AND THEN SWING TOWARD THE GULF AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH LOOKS WEAK AND DON'T EXPECT MUCH WEATHER WITH
IT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL BERING
AND ALEUTIANS...MAINTAINING WEAK WINDS WHICH IS OF COURSE FAVORABLE
FOR FOG. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS SPINNING OFF FROM LOWS NEAR
KAMCHATKA WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MAINLY WITH RAIN AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE LONG-WAVE
EVOLUTION DURING THE DAY 4 TO 7 PERIOD WITH A TROUGH DROPPING DOWN
FROM THE ARCTIC FRIDAY AND BECOMING CENTERED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF A CLOUDY AND COOL
PATTERN AND INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OR SHOWERS AS IT FIRST
ARRIVES. MEANWHILE...WEST OF THIS TROUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BENIGN ACROSS MOST OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WITH JUST SOME
WEAK FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC SKIRTING THE ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JUL 11