Small Craft Advisory 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

339 
FZAK51 PAFC 030029
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-031500-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 980 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK WILL DRIFT NORTH AND
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A 972 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK MON 
NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK AT 977 MB TUE
AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO 
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE.
$$

PKZ120-031500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT E 45 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF 
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 40 KT NEAR THE COAST 
E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-031500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N WIND 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-031500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-031500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-031500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT THIS EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-031500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO S WIND 20 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO S WIND 30 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-031500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-031500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN.  
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
RAIN. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-031500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

953 
FZAK51 PAFC 031303
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON JAN 3 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-040300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST MON NIGHT. A 970 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK MON NIGHT
WEAKENS TO 982 MB TUE NIGHT AS IT MOVES TO 75 NM EAST OF KODIAK.

$$

PKZ120-040300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. ELSEWHERE...BECOMING SE 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-040300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 3 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-040300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST MON JAN 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
55 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING
TO 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-040300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST MON JAN 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ130-040300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 10 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-040300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 3 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-040300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-040300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-040300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE WIND 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM
CONSIDERING THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THERE IS A SMALL DIFFERENCE
IN SOLUTIONS FOR A LOW APPROACHING KODIAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
IMPACT THAT AREA BUT OTHER THAN THAT THE MODELS ARE HOLDING TOGETHER
WELL. IN FACT THE LONG TERM IS NOT TOO BAD WITHER. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AND ARE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED MILES APART OF THE TRACK OF THE LOWS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS CURRENTLY IN
A THREE WAVE PATTERN WITH THE STRONGEST TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTH POLE TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED
IN THIS TOUGH IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND THIS WHOLE COMPLEX IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NUMEROUS SURFACE LOWS THAT HAVE BEEN CAUSING THE
ACTIVE WEATHER AROUND THE STATE THE LAST FEW DAYS. IN THIS ACTIVE
PATTERN THE JET STREAM IS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN POSITION
TO SPIN UP THE LOWS SO THAT THEY JUST KEEP COMING.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A STRONG LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA THAT
HAS BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWFALL AND THEN FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD BUT BE
SLOW TO WEAKEN. A SECONDARY LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND
JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THIS FEATURE IS INCREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF REGIONS AND IS THE
CAUSE OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TURNAGAIN ARM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
SEE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY AS SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS COLDER
AIR FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WRAPS AROUND THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. THE
ONLY AREAS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN IS ZONE
152 WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AS THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT RIDES OVER IT.
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP
STRONG WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE NORMAL AREAS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN
ARM...ALONG THE COPPER RIVER...AND CHANNELED TERRAIN. THESE WINDS ARE
CAUSING A GOOD DOWNSLOPE AREA IN THE LEE OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION AT BAY IN THESE
AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT GOES BY LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS IN ANCHORAGE
SHOULD TURN SOUTHEAST IN TOWN AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WHICH
MAY CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
UNTIL WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE ALASKA RANGE IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL SEE
SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM PROMPTING THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN ZONE 145 FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
PARKS HIGHWAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES. BY
LATE NEXT WEEK THERE SHOULD BE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE BERING SEA. MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT AS TO THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE BUT THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO BELIEVE THIS
FEATURE WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL BRING A MORE SETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
TO THE STATE THOUGH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
ARE LIKELY IN THIS NEW PATTERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING/PUBLIC ADVISORY SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 145 152.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 129 130 132 138 140 141 150 155 160 165 170 172
 175 176 179 180 185. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 11