Gale Warning 42, NWS Anchorage, AK

452 
FZAK52 PAFC 021253
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-030300-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 957 MB LOW 70 NM NORTH OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND MOVES THROUGH THE
BERING STRAIT AT 976 MB MON MORNING AND DISSIPATES MON AFTERNOON. A
975 MB LOW 240 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT MOVES TO NEAR CHIGNIK AT 981 MB
SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATES MON MORNING. A 962 MB LOW 520 NM SOUTH OF
SHEMYA MOVES TO 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT AT 970 MB MON
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-030300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT...THEN BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-030300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-030300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-030300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-030300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.MON...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-030300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...BERING SIDE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND
35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-030300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-030300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-030300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-030300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-030300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-030300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM
CONSIDERING THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THERE IS A SMALL DIFFERENCE
IN SOLUTIONS FOR A LOW APPROACHING KODIAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
IMPACT THAT AREA BUT OTHER THAN THAT THE MODELS ARE HOLDING TOGETHER
WELL. IN FACT THE LONG TERM IS NOT TOO BAD WITHER. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AND ARE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED MILES APART OF THE TRACK OF THE LOWS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS CURRENTLY IN
A THREE WAVE PATTERN WITH THE STRONGEST TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTH POLE TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED
IN THIS TOUGH IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND THIS WHOLE COMPLEX IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NUMEROUS SURFACE LOWS THAT HAVE BEEN CAUSING THE
ACTIVE WEATHER AROUND THE STATE THE LAST FEW DAYS. IN THIS ACTIVE
PATTERN THE JET STREAM IS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN POSITION
TO SPIN UP THE LOWS SO THAT THEY JUST KEEP COMING.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A STRONG LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA THAT
HAS BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWFALL AND THEN FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD BUT BE
SLOW TO WEAKEN. A SECONDARY LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND
JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THIS FEATURE IS INCREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF REGIONS AND IS THE
CAUSE OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TURNAGAIN ARM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
SEE PRECIPITATION MOSTLY AS SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS COLDER
AIR FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WRAPS AROUND THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. THE
ONLY AREAS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN IS ZONE
152 WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AS THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT RIDES OVER IT.
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP
STRONG WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE NORMAL AREAS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN
ARM...ALONG THE COPPER RIVER...AND CHANNELED TERRAIN. THESE WINDS ARE
CAUSING A GOOD DOWNSLOPE AREA IN THE LEE OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION AT BAY IN THESE
AREAS UNTIL THE FRONT GOES BY LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS IN ANCHORAGE
SHOULD TURN SOUTHEAST IN TOWN AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WHICH
MAY CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
UNTIL WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE ALASKA RANGE IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL SEE
SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM PROMPTING THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN ZONE 145 FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
PARKS HIGHWAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES. BY
LATE NEXT WEEK THERE SHOULD BE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE BERING SEA. MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT AS TO THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE BUT THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO BELIEVE THIS
FEATURE WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL BRING A MORE SETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
TO THE STATE THOUGH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
ARE LIKELY IN THIS NEW PATTERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING/PUBLIC ADVISORY SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 145 152.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 129 130 132 138 140 141 150 155 160 165 170 172
 175 176 179 180 185. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 11