Small Craft Advisory 447, NWS Anchorage, AK

242 
FZAK51 PAFC 301125
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010300-
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 997 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK WEAKENS TO 999
MB FRI NIGHT AS IT MOVES TO 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE SAINT ELIAS.

$$

PKZ120-010300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-010300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FOOT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-010300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-010300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ130-010300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-010300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS
VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT.  
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-010300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-010300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ141-010300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 29 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THREE
DISTINCT CENTERS REMAINS OVER THE STATE TODAY. THE STRONGEST CENTER
IS IN THE ARCTIC WITH A WEAKER LOW OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND AND THE THIRD
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. SOUTH OF THESE TWO LOWS THE GRADIENT
GREATLY INCREASES AND ACCELERATES THE JET STREAM OVER THE BERING SEA
AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BEFORE BEING PUSHED SOUTH OF THE GULF.
THERE IS NOT A LARGE SCALE CHANGE IN THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.THE NORTHERN CENTER WILL STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE AND
RESIDE ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. THE LOW OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE GULF AND KEEP THE POSITION OF THE JET OVER THE
BERING SEA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE YUKON THAT POKES
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA BY TOMORROW AND STRENGTHENS A LITTLE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
THE NAM WAS USED MORE THAN THE GFS IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGES DUE TO
DETAILS WITH IT BEING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY THROUGH THE WESTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. THIS GIVES A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THE
STRIKE AGAINST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS THAT THE CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN HAS BEEN MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED EARLIER IN THE DAY. IF MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING DOES NOT
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED.
TOMORROW WILL SEE SOME OF THIS UNSTABLE AIR MORE WESTWARD OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE BUT THE INCREASE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MAY PUT A CAP ON THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. IN
SHORT THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL REMAINS A REAL BALANCING ACT.
STRATUS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALASKA
PENINSULA AND NEARBY AREAS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE CONVECTIVE BALANCING ACT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND FROM THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TO THE ALASKA RANGE IN THE
SUSITNA VALLEY. A THERMAL LOW EXTENDING OUT OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND INTO COOK INLET WILL HELP KEEP
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL LIFT AROUND WHICH WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AROUND IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST WHICH MAY HELP TO CAP THEIR POTENTIAL
TO DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE IT
COULD HELP TO BRING PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS COULD WORK OUT A NUMBER OF
WAYS BUT THE MOST LIKELY SITUATION IS THAT THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS
WEEKEND WILL ALSO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THERE.
THE BERING SEA REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER MARINE STRATUS IN THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUN 11