Small Craft Advisory 446, NWS Anchorage, AK

395 
FZAK52 PAFC 301142
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-010300-
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-010300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-010300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-010300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-010300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-010300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-010300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 30 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 29 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THREE
DISTINCT CENTERS REMAINS OVER THE STATE TODAY. THE STRONGEST CENTER
IS IN THE ARCTIC WITH A WEAKER LOW OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND AND THE THIRD
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. SOUTH OF THESE TWO LOWS THE GRADIENT
GREATLY INCREASES AND ACCELERATES THE JET STREAM OVER THE BERING SEA
AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BEFORE BEING PUSHED SOUTH OF THE GULF.
THERE IS NOT A LARGE SCALE CHANGE IN THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.THE NORTHERN CENTER WILL STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE AND
RESIDE ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. THE LOW OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE GULF AND KEEP THE POSITION OF THE JET OVER THE
BERING SEA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE YUKON THAT POKES
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA BY TOMORROW AND STRENGTHENS A LITTLE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
THE NAM WAS USED MORE THAN THE GFS IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGES DUE TO
DETAILS WITH IT BEING THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY THROUGH THE WESTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. THIS GIVES A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THE
STRIKE AGAINST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS THAT THE CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN HAS BEEN MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED EARLIER IN THE DAY. IF MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING DOES NOT
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED.
TOMORROW WILL SEE SOME OF THIS UNSTABLE AIR MORE WESTWARD OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE BUT THE INCREASE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MAY PUT A CAP ON THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. IN
SHORT THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL REMAINS A REAL BALANCING ACT.
STRATUS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALASKA
PENINSULA AND NEARBY AREAS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE CONVECTIVE BALANCING ACT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND FROM THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TO THE ALASKA RANGE IN THE
SUSITNA VALLEY. A THERMAL LOW EXTENDING OUT OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND INTO COOK INLET WILL HELP KEEP
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL LIFT AROUND WHICH WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AROUND IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST WHICH MAY HELP TO CAP THEIR POTENTIAL
TO DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE IT
COULD HELP TO BRING PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS COULD WORK OUT A NUMBER OF
WAYS BUT THE MOST LIKELY SITUATION IS THAT THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS
WEEKEND WILL ALSO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THERE.
THE BERING SEA REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER MARINE STRATUS IN THE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUN 11