Small Craft Advisory 428, NWS Anchorage, AK

735 
FZAK51 PAFC 222311
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231500-
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON

$$

PKZ120-231500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-231500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-231500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-231500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 20 MPH NEAR
WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ130-231500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-231500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-231500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-231500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-231500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

019 
FZAK51 PAFC 231146
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240300-
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-240300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-240300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 KT AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. VARIABLE
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT AND MORNINGS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.
  
$$

PKZ125-240300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-240300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-240300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-240300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-240300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-240300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-240300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT AND SEAS 4 FT AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT AND MORNINGS.
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WELL IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING EAST
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER LAGGING BEHIND THE GLOBAL
MODELS WITH THE POSITION OF THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A PAIR OF CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOWS CONTROL THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA/VALLEY REGION HAS BROUGHT EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO
THE DELTA REGION AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.
THE OTHER CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF COMPLETES A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHING. BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS A VERY WEAK AREA OF RIDGING EXISTS
FROM EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES BLOCKING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF KUSKOKWIM LOW KEEPS A BENIGN WIND FIELD OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD.

AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. A
THERMAL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUKON VALLEY. ANOTHER WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE EXISTS AS A REFLECTION OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE BERING STRAIT. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIAN AND ALASKAN PENINSULA KEEPS THE WINDS LIGHT BUT TRAPS THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG. A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WORKS TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...INCREASING CLOUDINESS TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE ENCROACHING ON THE AREA. SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE NORTHERN
SUSITNA VALLEY TODAY WITH THIS FEATURE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR TODAY BRINGING RAIN TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOWARD THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE WITH SHOWERS OVER THE ALASKAN PENINSULA. LOW CLOUDS
WILL STILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH
IN THE MARINE LAYER.

BERING SEA...STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS BRINGING AREAS OF SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ISLANDS TODAY. EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN BERING AND RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THE
WEEKEND BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE BERING
SEA LOW WILL PUSH OVER THE WESTERN COAST RETURNING WETTER CONDITIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL JUN 11