Small Craft Advisory 427, NWS Anchorage, AK

801 
FZAK52 PAFC 222300
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-231500-
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU
NIGHT. A 1006 MB LOW 120 NM EAST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 300 NM
SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY FRI AFTERNOON AT 1012 MB. A 1004 MB LOW
DEVELOPS 320 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK THU NIGHT AND MOVES TO 120 NM 
SOUTH OF ADAK FRI AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-231500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-231500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-231500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-231500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-231500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-231500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-231500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-231500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-231500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-231500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-231500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-231500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 22 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE BERING SEA WITH TWO
VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. A
THIRD LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC NEAR THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL CONTROL MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN MANY AREAS WITH
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT MORE DRIZZLE IS LIKELY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK BEFORE SOME DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE STRENGTH OF A
DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS
NEARLY IDENTICAL BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MINIMAL
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
PERSISTENCE IS THE BEST FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS VERY
FEW CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. A COL WILL LEAD TO A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THEREFOR LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z
SOUNDING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN LOW
CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. BY LATE
MORNING...THE SUN WILL BURN OFF SOME OF THE LOWER STRATUS.

AN EASTERLY WAVE CROSSING THE ALASKA/CANADA BORDER NEAR THE WRANGELL
MOUNTAINS APPEARS TO BE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE BASED ON THE 18Z SATELLITE
WAVER VAPOR IMAGERY. THERE WAS SOME CONCERN THAT THIS WAVE WOULD
BRING RAIN TO ALL OF SOUTHCENTRAL LATER TONIGHT BUT THE LATEST RUNS
INDICATE THAT THE WAVE WILL BE DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH BY THE WEAK
RIDGE. THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND NORTHERN SUSITNA WILL SEE THE BRUNT
OF THIS WAVE BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE THIS EVENING AS THE
MOISTURE SPREADS TO THE WEST.

.SOUTHWEST...OR SHOULD WE CALL IT SOUTHWET?? CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
RESULTING LIGHT RAIN OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND TEMPERATURES 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA MOVES NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
FINALLY MOVES OVER THE REGION. COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW
CEILINGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNINGS
AS THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HOLDS THE SHALLOW BERING MOISTURE IN
PLACE.

FURTHER WEST...TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND
ABUNDANT STRATUS AND FOG DOMINATING THE BERING SEA. A WEAK MIDLEVEL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST DURING
THE WEAK BRINGING MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS A CHANCE OF RAIN BY FRIDAY.

EXTENDED...MUCH WARMER AIR SPREADS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL BY THE WEEKEND
WITH 925 MB TEMPS UP FROM 7C ALL THE WAY UP TO AT LEAST 13C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 70S IN ANCHORAGE AND MID TO
UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY 80S...FURTHER INLAND. ALL MODELS THEN BRING A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENDING THE
WARM WEATHER AND INTRODUCING RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB JUN 11