Small Craft Advisory 411, NWS Anchorage, AK

156 
FZAK52 PAFC 132311
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141500-
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1005 MB LOW NEAR SAINT PAUL ISLAND WILL MOVE NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM TUE
MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE. A 988 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU
WILL MOVE 150 NM OF ADAK WED AFTERNOON AT 989 MB. A WEATHER FRONT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-141500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-141500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-141500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-141500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-141500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-141500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-141500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ172-141500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-141500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-141500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-141500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-141500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT IN THE
WEAK PATTERN OVER THE AREA. THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN NAM IN
THE BERING SEA LOW NORTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND THAT
SOLUTION WAS USED IN THE WESTERN AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A BIT OF MODEL DIVERGENCE THAT WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON MOST OF THE MAINLAND PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A VERY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD TO
THE KENAI PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NORTHEAST TIP OF
THE STATE ALONG WITH A COLD UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THAT
ELONGATES INTO A TROUGH STRETCHING INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AT THE SURFACE THE RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST COMBINED WITH A
THERMAL LOW IN THE INTERIOR IS BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.
THERE IS ALSO A SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS WELL
AS ONE SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND WHICH ARE CAUSING AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE WEAK LOW SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND IS
BRINGING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TO THE GULF SIDE OF THE ISLAND. THIS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS THIS WEAKENING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE ISLAND. THE ONLY AREAS
AT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK TO BE IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND IN THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. ALL OTHER AREAS LOOK TO BE TOO STABLE TO KICK OFF ANY
CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CREEPS UP RAPIDLY HEADING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM AS...EVEN BY WEDNESDAY...THE GFS NAM AND ECMWF
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOCATION OF
THIS LOW STRETCH FROM NORTH OF DILLINGHAM TO SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WEATHER OVER MOST
OF MAINLAND SOUTHERN ALASKA DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS LOW HEADS. A
FARTHER SOUTHEAST TRACK WILL KEEP MAINLAND ALASKA DRIER WITH
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST WHERE A WESTERLY
SOLUTION WOULD BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM
BRISTOL BAY EASTWARD. THE SOLUTION THAT IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME IS
THE DRIER ONE THAT TAKES THE UPPER LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA...BUT THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CHANGE AS TIME GOES ON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUN 11