Small Craft Advisory 410, NWS Anchorage, AK

833 
FZAK51 PAFC 132351
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141500-
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1006 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD WILL MOVE TO NEAR CORDOVA TUE
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-141500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-141500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-141500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-141500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-141500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-141500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-141500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FOOT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-141500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-141500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 13 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

902 
FZAK51 PAFC 141149
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150300-
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL DISSIPATE
BY TUE NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH WED NIGHT.  
$$

PKZ120-150300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.   

$$

PKZ121-150300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-150300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-150300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FOOT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FOOT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ130-150300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-150300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   

$$

PKZ140-150300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ141-150300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD SHORT TERM AGREEMENT IN THE
WEAK PATTERN OVER THE AREA. THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN NAM IN
THE BERING SEA LOW NORTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND THAT
SOLUTION WAS USED IN THE WESTERN AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS A BIT OF MODEL DIVERGENCE THAT WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON MOST OF THE MAINLAND PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A VERY WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD TO
THE KENAI PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NORTHEAST TIP OF
THE STATE ALONG WITH A COLD UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THAT
ELONGATES INTO A TROUGH STRETCHING INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AT THE SURFACE THE RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST COMBINED WITH A
THERMAL LOW IN THE INTERIOR IS BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.
THERE IS ALSO A SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS WELL
AS ONE SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND WHICH ARE CAUSING AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE WEAK LOW SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND IS
BRINGING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TO THE GULF SIDE OF THE ISLAND. THIS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS THIS WEAKENING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE ISLAND. THE ONLY AREAS
AT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK TO BE IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND IN THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. ALL OTHER AREAS LOOK TO BE TOO STABLE TO KICK OFF ANY
CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CREEPS UP RAPIDLY HEADING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM AS...EVEN BY WEDNESDAY...THE GFS NAM AND ECMWF
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOCATION OF
THIS LOW STRETCH FROM NORTH OF DILLINGHAM TO SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WEATHER OVER MOST
OF MAINLAND SOUTHERN ALASKA DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS LOW HEADS. A
FARTHER SOUTHEAST TRACK WILL KEEP MAINLAND ALASKA DRIER WITH
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST WHERE A WESTERLY
SOLUTION WOULD BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM
BRISTOL BAY EASTWARD. THE SOLUTION THAT IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME IS
THE DRIER ONE THAT TAKES THE UPPER LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA...BUT THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CHANGE AS TIME GOES ON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUN 11