Small Craft Advisory 394, NWS Anchorage, AK

053 
FZAK51 PAFC 061141
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-070300-
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A FRONT STEMMING FROM A 1004 MB 
LOW 50 NM SE OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE IN PLACE 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 
$$

PKZ120-070300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...WIND SHIFTING 
TO SE 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT.
RAIN. MIDDLETON ISLAND E...SE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-070300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 1 FT BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-070300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-070300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-070300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE LATE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT TOWARD MORNING. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-070300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT INCREASING TO E 35 KT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
SEAS 5 FT...BUILDING TO 8 FT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-070300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-070300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT...BECOMING NE 25 KT S OF 
KALGIN ISLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT...BUILDING TO 6 FT 
S OF KALGIN ISLAND.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 7 FT EXCEPT 3 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-070300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT. GFS HAS HAD GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND IS OUR MODEL OF CHOICE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. SAW NO NEED TO MAKE CHANGES TO MID OR LONG TERM FORECAST
PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

.ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST...

A 994 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 1014 MB BY TUESDAY MORNING. MOIST WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A 1004 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF COLD BAY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY MONDAY EVENING THEN GRADUAL BREAK
DOWN AS IT PRESSES FURTHER NORTHWARD AND FURTHER INLAND.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE REAR FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS COVERED IN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN SNOW SHOWERS...THROUGH MIDWEEK.

A SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY BUT THE
TRANSVERSE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL. FEW SUNNY BREAKS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL PREDOMINATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. TROUGH ALOFT BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY EVENING...LEADING TO A BRIEF DRYING TREND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
BUT WILL BE SHOVED OFF THE THE EAST WHEN THE NEW NORTH PACIFIC
LOW...DISCUSSED ABOVE...MOVES IN EARLY TUESDAY.

GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE USUAL
CHANNELED AREAS OF BOTH SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT RAPIDLY OCCLUDES AS IT PASSES OVER KODIAK
ISLAND MON NIGHT...REACHING THE GULF COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM
IS BOTH WARM AND SLOW MOVING...WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER KODIAK ISLAND...PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA...AND SOUTHERNMOST EXTENSION OF
THE ALASKA RANGE. THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND ANCHORAGE MUNICIPALITY
WILL BE SHIELDED FROM MOST OF THE RAIN BY THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER
RIVER BASIN WILL BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE 1004 MB LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY MONDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT PASSES OVER KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL DROP OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT LIGHT RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA INTO THURSDAY.

A 984 MB LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC ON TUESDAY AND
TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS AND PLENTY OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB JUN 11