Gale Warning 443, NWS Anchorage, AK

043 
FZAK61 PAFC 061140
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-070300-
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A FRONT STEMMING FROM A 1002 MB LOW NEAR
55N 158W WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
$$

PKZ351-070300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

.TODAY...SE TO SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ352-070300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO SE 20 TO 35 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS W OF 170W. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

868 
FZAK61 PAFC 062341
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-071500-
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST TUE AFTERNOON. A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 56N 158W TUE AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO 56N 153W AT 1015 MB WED AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ351-071500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
$$

PKZ352-071500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
$$

232 
FZAK61 PAFC 071135
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-080300-
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT STEMMING FROM A 1003 MB LOW NEAR 54N 158W WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN 
TO 1015 MB AS IT DRIFTS TO NEAR 56N 153W WED AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ351-080300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ352-080300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SUN JUN 5 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT. GFS HAS HAD GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND IS OUR MODEL OF CHOICE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. SAW NO NEED TO MAKE CHANGES TO MID OR LONG TERM FORECAST
PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

.ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST...

A 994 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 1014 MB BY TUESDAY MORNING. MOIST WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A 1004 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF COLD BAY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY MONDAY EVENING THEN GRADUAL BREAK
DOWN AS IT PRESSES FURTHER NORTHWARD AND FURTHER INLAND.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE REAR FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS COVERED IN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN SNOW SHOWERS...THROUGH MIDWEEK.

A SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY BUT THE
TRANSVERSE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL. FEW SUNNY BREAKS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL PREDOMINATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. TROUGH ALOFT BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY EVENING...LEADING TO A BRIEF DRYING TREND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
BUT WILL BE SHOVED OFF THE THE EAST WHEN THE NEW NORTH PACIFIC
LOW...DISCUSSED ABOVE...MOVES IN EARLY TUESDAY.

GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE USUAL
CHANNELED AREAS OF BOTH SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT RAPIDLY OCCLUDES AS IT PASSES OVER KODIAK
ISLAND MON NIGHT...REACHING THE GULF COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM
IS BOTH WARM AND SLOW MOVING...WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER KODIAK ISLAND...PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA...AND SOUTHERNMOST EXTENSION OF
THE ALASKA RANGE. THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND ANCHORAGE MUNICIPALITY
WILL BE SHIELDED FROM MOST OF THE RAIN BY THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER
RIVER BASIN WILL BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE 1004 MB LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY MONDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT PASSES OVER KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL DROP OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT LIGHT RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA INTO THURSDAY.

A 984 MB LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC ON TUESDAY AND
TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS AND PLENTY OF RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB JUN 11