Small Craft Advisory 245, NWS Anchorage, AK

821 
FZAK51 PAFC 032343
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-041500-
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 974 MB LOW 225 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTH 
OF YAKUTAT AT 990 MB MON AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE ALASKA PANHANDLE EARLY TUE MORNING. 
$$

PKZ120-041500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-041500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-041500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-041500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-041500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT EXCEPT 12 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SEAS
6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-041500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-041500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-041500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-041500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
SUBSIDING.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

567 
FZAK51 PAFC 041137
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050300-
400 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR 340 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO
110 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE AT 995 MB TUE MORNING AND WEAKEN
NEAR THE AK PANHANDLE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF ON TUE AND PERSIST THROUGH WED.
$$

PKZ120-050300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...EAST OF CAPE CLEARE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
 WEST OF CAPE CLEARE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-050300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-050300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-050300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-050300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-050300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-050300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-050300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT BUILDING TO
4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO
3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-050300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON APR 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SAT APR 2 2011

.SURFACE FEATURES AND MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. ALL RECOGNIZE A LARGE 970
MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. LOW INTENSIFIES TO 966 MB
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR CHIGNIK BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKENS TO 988 MB AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON MOVING A SECOND LOW OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA SUNDAY EVENING
AT ABOUT 976 MB. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE BERING. PREFER THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION WHICH
KEEPS THE LOW WEST OF LONGITUDE 180 THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER TODAY IS A LARGE 966 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AS OF 2 PM...ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT EXTENDED
FROM UNIMAK PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA...ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY COASTS...AND ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND.
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING QUICKLY NORTH AND EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WHILE THE LOW CENTER ITSELF TRANSLATES SLOWLY EASTWARD.
PLENTY OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A MIX OF
RAIN AND WET SNOW IS PRESENTLY FALLING FROM THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. BRISTOL BAY REGION...KODIAK ISLAND...AND INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALSO A MAJOR
CONCERN IN THIS SECTOR...ESPECIALLY THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS SUCH AS
TURNAGAIN ARM...PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...AND THE LAKE ILIAMNA AREA.
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN SOUTHCENTRAL EXPECTED TO PREVENT PRECIP FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE ANCHORAGE...WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA...MAT
VALLEY...AND EASTERN SUSITNA VALLEY ZONES. UPSLOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY.
STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE REAR FLANK OF THE LOW
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA.
THE COMBINATION OF COOL TEMPERATURES...STRONG WINDS...AND COPIOUS
MOISTURE HAD RESULTED IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST AND ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. LOW VISIBILITIES
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW FOR THE
DELTA. VISIBILITIES HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT FOR THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS PRECIP BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATER
THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
.UPPER LEVELS AND LONG TERM FORECAST...
BROAD LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSES BERING SEA AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTH PACIFIC WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND MAINLAND ALASKA. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY MONDAY
MORNING AS TROUGH PRESSES EASTWARD. WEAK BUT NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS BY MIDWEEK. SURFACE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP
STRONG SYSTEMS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND GULF OF ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZ WARNING 155 185. HIGH WIND WATCH 181 185.
MARINE...GALE 125 138 140 150 160 172 175 179 180 185.
         STORM 120 130 132 155 165 170 171 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB APR 11