Gale Warning 305, NWS Anchorage, AK

178 
FZAK61 PAFC 032342
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-041500-
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 974 MB LOW NEAR 54N 152W WILL MOVE TO 54N 140W AT 990 MB MON
AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE
EARLY TUE MORNING. 
$$

PKZ351-041500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  
$$

PKZ352-041500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 3 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SAT APR 2 2011

.SURFACE FEATURES AND MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. ALL RECOGNIZE A LARGE 970
MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. LOW INTENSIFIES TO 966 MB
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR CHIGNIK BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKENS TO 988 MB AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON MOVING A SECOND LOW OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA SUNDAY EVENING
AT ABOUT 976 MB. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE BERING. PREFER THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION WHICH
KEEPS THE LOW WEST OF LONGITUDE 180 THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER TODAY IS A LARGE 966 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AS OF 2 PM...ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT EXTENDED
FROM UNIMAK PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA...ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY COASTS...AND ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND.
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING QUICKLY NORTH AND EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WHILE THE LOW CENTER ITSELF TRANSLATES SLOWLY EASTWARD.
PLENTY OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A MIX OF
RAIN AND WET SNOW IS PRESENTLY FALLING FROM THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. BRISTOL BAY REGION...KODIAK ISLAND...AND INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALSO A MAJOR
CONCERN IN THIS SECTOR...ESPECIALLY THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS SUCH AS
TURNAGAIN ARM...PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...AND THE LAKE ILIAMNA AREA.
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN SOUTHCENTRAL EXPECTED TO PREVENT PRECIP FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE ANCHORAGE...WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA...MAT
VALLEY...AND EASTERN SUSITNA VALLEY ZONES. UPSLOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY.
STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE REAR FLANK OF THE LOW
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA.
THE COMBINATION OF COOL TEMPERATURES...STRONG WINDS...AND COPIOUS
MOISTURE HAD RESULTED IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST AND ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. LOW VISIBILITIES
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW FOR THE
DELTA. VISIBILITIES HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT FOR THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS PRECIP BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATER
THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
.UPPER LEVELS AND LONG TERM FORECAST...
BROAD LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSES BERING SEA AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTH PACIFIC WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND MAINLAND ALASKA. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY MONDAY
MORNING AS TROUGH PRESSES EASTWARD. WEAK BUT NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS BY MIDWEEK. SURFACE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP
STRONG SYSTEMS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND GULF OF ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZ WARNING 155 185. HIGH WIND WATCH 181 185.
MARINE...GALE 125 138 140 150 160 172 175 179 180 185.
         STORM 120 130 132 155 165 170 171 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB APR 11