Small Craft Advisory 232, NWS Anchorage, AK

812 
FZAK52 PAFC 291153
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-300300-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 972 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WEAKENS TO 979 MB AND MOVES
TO 150 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT TUE NIGHT AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 998 MB LOW 150 NM WEST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 100 NM
SOUTH OF SHEMYA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

$$

PKZ150-300300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-300300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-300300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-300300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-300300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.  
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-300300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-300300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-300300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-300300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-300300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-300300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-300300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON FEB 28 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN REMAINS TODAY
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
WESTERN ALASKA. THE 250 MB JET STREAM THAT HAS BEEN RIDING DUE NORTH
TO SOUTH AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE IS WEAKENING AND MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WILL CEASE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FEATURE BY
TOMORROW. THE MAIN JET STREAM CONTINUES TO STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA NEAR 30N.
THE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE AND STRETCHES
WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND EASTWARD WELL INTO CANADA.
THE LOW TRACK REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOWS OVER THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE STILL DOING A GOOD JOB HANDLING THE
CURRENT PATTERN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS WITH THE INDIVIDUAL LOWS ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE
MODELS EACH HAVE A DIFFERENT IDEA AS TO WHERE THE INDIVIDUAL LOWS
WILL DEVELOP BUT THEY ALL HAVE THE BOUNDARY ITSELF IN THE SAME PLACE
AND THEREFORE THE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WILL BE MINIMAL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS IN THE VALDEZ AREA AND
COPPER RIVER DELTA HAVE EXPIRED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS HAVE COME
DOWN ENOUGH TO REMAIN UNDER WARNING CRITERIA. THE WEAKENING OF THE
JET STREAM HAS BEEN A BIG FACTOR IN THIS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF A LOW NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHT FOR A FEW MORE DAYS SO WINDS WILL
NOT COME DOWN ALL THE WAY FOR AWHILE IN THESE AREA.
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH NORTHERLY WINDS THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THE NEXT FEW DAYS EXCEPT
FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL SNEAK OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA.
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WARM
SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE WEATHER PATTERN WE ARE IN WILL CHANGE VERY
LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL
HAVE MOVED INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN OPENING UP THE GULF OF ALASKA TO A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER EXCEPT IT MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE GULF OF ALASKA
COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120 121 125 129 130 140.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ FEB 11